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I wanted to clear the air a little bit, especially with Mike leaving the channel he created. First off, this is the real Justin. I know there's been a lot of fake Screenwave people on here over the years, but... I think you'll tell from my post that it's me. It's going to be too inside-baseball to be faked. Plus, mod GreatBowser confirmed it in Twitter DM. I also wanted to do an AMA for a while, was going to do one on Facebook in that Assposting group... but they started contacting family members on my Facebook profile and stuff. So... I left all Cinemassacre fan groups I was in and locked my profile down. I feel that this subreddit is probably the best place for the AMA... since you guys clearly care about the channel a lot and wouldn't hold back any punches. I was on here a few years ago. But, I jumped ship pretty quickly and didn't really engage after that, or even lurk. I would get sent threads from time to time. Yet, over the years I noticed the Truth went from heavy trolling and hyperbole, to more shitposting and constructive criticism. That's something I can get behind. Plus, you guys aren't going away... and Screenwave isn't going away. So, I wanted to meet in the middle. I wanted to step out in front of a lot of your questions. Answer them for you. I am going to use the Megathread and newer top posts to pull questions from. (But, feel free to ask stuff below. I'll only be monitoring this thread the next week or so, if that's alright.) Lastly, I do not speak for James, Mike, Ryan, Screenwave Media, or the other guys... it's just how I see things, or what I know personally. Who owns Cinemassacre now? Screenwave Media? James owns it. I don't know the specifics after that or with the AVGN movie, but I know Screenwave Media owns 0% of any of it. We only have a stake in the AVGN games we produce. Yes, we take a percentage of monthly revenue, like we do other partners on the network... but we don't have any control of the Cinemassacre company... OR have any creative control. James can do whatever he wants with both. He decides to work with us, and we like working for him. So, do the Screenwave guys work for Cinemassacre or what? "The Slobs," as we are called (thanks for that) don't have any creative control or financial stake, as said before. We are just employees of Screenwave Media. Hell, Cinemassacre isn't even my full time thing here. I do a lot of producing of our games and social media content, plus direction for the company kinda stuff. Tony and Kieran are the only full-time employees at Screenwave working for Cinemassacre... and that is mostly writing, filming, and editing. Why wasn't there a better way to introduce "The Slobs"? That's the last time I'll call us the slobs, haha. Honestly, we probably should've introduced ourselves better. Mind you, we were working on the channel for a while at that point... and, when you're James or whatever, you're already really acquainted with us... so, when Tony slips into that Halloween 6 review or we start doing Rental Reviews, it doesn't really come to your mind to roll out the red carpet and send out flyers to everyone, because you assume people follow his socials where we're mentioned or at conventions or whatever... you just kinda do it... which, I don't think people would have cared too much about... if it wasn't for the departure of Kyle and Bootsy still stinging. What about Kyle and Bootsy then??? I started working for Screenwave in 2015... and on Cinemassacre in late 2017... so, I wasn't really there for the behind the scenes of Kyle and Bootsy. I met the guys a bunch beforehand though. I like the guys now too. You also know I did the stupid AVGN Roast in 2013... and I think I gave them that cake/award thing at TooManyGames the year before too... so, I knew Kyle and Bootsy well enough and we'd talk at after parties and whatever. Only saying that because I just want to put it out there that I don't harbor any animosity for them. None of us do. I'd like to work with them in the future if it's ever possible. Oh, and if you watch the Silvermania 2016 MAGfest video you'll see Bootsy. Really surprised none of you saw that yet... anyway... yeah, no idea why there was a falling out 100%. I know Kyle wanted to get more involved with his contracting company... and Mike and Bootsy had a falling out. Friends sometimes do, especially when they start working together and being in business together. All I know is what Mike posted publicly a while ago. Be cool to see them again one day regardless. Why did Mike leave? I think he was pretty clear about it in his reddit post. We were planning 2021 and I guess Mike was feeling disconnected for a while... and honestly, loves to stream on Twitch. So, it just made sense for him to bounce. All the old stuff he made is still there, and I guess there's some burnout mixed with enjoying his new thing. I don't blame him. Yes, James barely talked about it in the update video... but, Mike specifically didn't want a huge send off or too much said about it. So, James said as much as Mike wanted him too. That simple. What about all the Mike drama over the years? Same with the Kyle/Bootsy stuff. I wasn't around for it. I know as much as you know, maybe less. I think Mike has apologized for all of it... so, I am going to leave it there. I have no problems with Mike, he's always been good to me. Hoping to stream with him eventually from time to time or just hang out. Why doesn't James write the AVGN episodes anymore? Well, he does... and he doesn't. It's collaborative. Sometimes we play all the games together, sometimes just he does. Sometimes we'll come up with an outline for a script and he fills it in, sometimes it's the reverse. Sometimes he comes up with ideas for games, sometimes we do. It's so back and forth that I can't really separate it at this point... I understand they don't feel like stuff from back in the day... but, not much you can do about that. He's older, back in the GameTrailers day he had something to prove. I think the movie burned him out... plus his family life and side projects. It takes its toll, I think we were moving in a good direction but Covid kinda fucked stuff up, for all of us. Our goal is to make 2021 a great Nerd year. We have been working on the plan for a while now with more time to focus on writing, acting, all that. I think 2020 had us flying by the seat of our pants. I was editing stuff 24 hours straight sometime. Sorry if it doesn't seem that way, haha. We put a lot of time and effort into making what we can, but we want to improve and we want the content to improve. What's with all the brand deals and lack of cursing? As you know, YouTube is a minefield of demonetization, limited ads, and de-platforming. We're trying our best to make the channel money and keep views up. The brand deals really help, because a lot of our content gets limited ads, especially the older stuff. As you know, our backlog is huge. Cursing in the first minute is an instant limited ads. Which hurt money, sure, BUT it also makes the algorithm push you less. So, if a YKWBS gets limited ads it'll get half the views it would normally get, or less... so, we had to make these changes to stay afloat. Even the AVGN theme gets pinged... that's why a lot of AVGN episodes did worst this year (aside from whatever quality issues you have)... Bad Final Fight Games got limited ads because the Nerd said "blue balls," and that's too sexual. See what I mean? If we get hit, it kills views. So... we do brand deals, we put the theme after a minute, we changed it to BS in the front... if not, views would suffer, and future stuff would be pushed less and less. It's weird. Sure, we could do a Patreon and all that, but views would still suffer. And, we never want to just take your money... if skipping forward in a video is all you have to do, whatever. If you want to support us, merch is the best way to do that. And yes, James gets most of the profit from merch. It's not us running some scam. Why are the Screenwave guys such SLOBS?? (Oops, used it again.) I don't want to talk about how Ryan, Kieran, or Tony (from Hack the Movies) feel... but, I know Kieran really took a lot of the stuff here to heart. Especially after the years of fat jokes, caveman jokes, and people pretending to be his dead father. He went off the edge a few times. I think he's in a way better place now, and I think he's really been taking good care of himself. Shit, I lost 80 pounds this year but gained a lot of it back when the world started opening back up... that's the thing about being fat your whole life. It's hard to dig yourself out, it's easy to diet and exercise if you're already thinner. I was fat in like kindergarten, those habits and addictions just continue on with you. Plus, food has always been a comfort for me. Not to go into a sob story, but my Mom died in '99 because of drugs and stuff... and I grew up with 3 sisters across multiple states in a poor family... and, being teased your entire life just goes on and on. Honestly, if you're 20 pounds overweight or 200... it feels the same when you're ridiculed, so, what's the difference, just get bigger, you'll never be small enough to not catch shit. I mean, not to go into my psychology or whatever, sorry... BUT, my goal is to get healthy in 2021... it's a "rebuilding year" for me... that's a sports term. I mean, I doubt it'll affect my personality much... so, if that's your problem, then shit... but, clearly us slobs don't want to be slobs. Even Tony (from hack the movies) and Ryan have been working on themselves too... plus, I always put others before me... from work, to family, to my girlfriend... I'm usually the last stop. Any advice or whatever you guys wanna give, please do. My Twitter DMs are always open. Coat-tail riding MUCH?? I mean? Not really? Not sure how much fame we can get out of this. It's just our job, and we like helping James and shooting the shit on the internet. Plus, I had two failed YouTube shows before working with Cinemassacre (why the fuck did they hire me??) so, I don't really care about the clout. It's cool when people high-five us at conventions and other content creators give us the nod... but, we're just trying to make videos, build up Screenwave more, and keep James making the content he wants to make. That's it. I mean, hasn't really helped Hack the Movies much (LOL). What do you think of the AVGN movie? It's alright. I think it could be better here and there, but it's really hard to make a movie. Anyway, back when it was being planned... I was trying to get James to do it locally, with the Underbelly guys and people I knew into film. Do it cheap. But, I also understand wanting to make a big movie in Hollywood. That's a dream. Anyway, at the end of the day, I hope James gets to make another movie one day. I really liked his horror script, but clearly that's on the backburner if not cancelled... but, my goal is to get something to happen one day for him. Now I wanted to dive a bit into my past... Why do you defend Bob and still talk to him to this day? So, as you might know, Bob (who used to be on my old YouTube show Silvermania) was busted for having child porn several years ago, after we stopped working together anyway. He went to jail for a year and has since been off the grid. I don't talk to him anymore and I completely cut ties. I've talked about the matter before, saying he "did his time" and stuff. Which, I meant like... I don't want to dogpile on a guy whose life is completely ruined... and who already fucked up a ton. I wanted him to get the help he needs and never work with him again. But, as I said before, I haven't talked to him in years and I don't plan to. Why did you make fun of Total Biscuit's cancer? I regret everything that happened between Silvermania and TB. The short version, is we were invited on his podcast accidentally. They thought we were another show... my original show Underbelly, I think... which was a really different thing, and we were frustrated our YouTube network at the time (MakeTGS) didn't know the difference. Silvermania was me and my old roommate, who posted on here a few times as you know. They wouldn't let us on together and kept asking questions before the show about Underbelly and stuff that didn't pertain to us, but whatever. Watch it, it even says UnderbellyShow under my face. Things went south really quick... and honestly, I shouldn't have been a dickbag on the call... but, as I said, it was weird from the get-go. The energy was really off between all of us on the call, and I just played into being the bad guy. Anyway, we got kicked off the podcast halfway through and a wave of TB fans started attacking us for months. Now, there were like 5 people with access to the Silvermania YouTube at the time... plus I think mods and stuff. So, I'm not sure who did it. Hell, it could've been me under the influence. I drank way too much back then... anyway, someone made fun of TB's cancer down the road and it's been screen-grabbed and passed around. I mean, there's not too much context to it... aside from just being a shitty thing to say because we felt burned by the guy and his fans. Anyway, after that I met with him at a convention and we put it past us. He never actually saw the insult. I was really upset when I heard he passed, I always liked him and his content. Especially all the PC gaming stuff. Why did you post "I'm a pedo, watch out" on Twitter? AH, right. I know that sounds like foreshadowing about the Bob stuff, but it wasn't. Back then, I think it was 2013... I didn't really use Twitter much. We had the SilvermaniaShow handle... which connected directly to our Facebook fan page. So, if we posted on Facebook, it would auto-post to Twitter. Also back then, we would have huge parties at our apartment and stuff, like 50 people would show up once a month... a lot of friends and fans of the show too. Anyway, someone "hacked" our Facebook account... as in, went on the computer that was playing music, typed that in as a joke, and hit send. We immediately deleted it... but, we forgot it auto-posts to Twitter and forgot about it. Anyway, when the show ended... I changed the handle from SilvermaniaShow to JustySilverman, the one I am using now, making it my personal account. But, the wayback machine or whatever, just makes it look like my current profile said he's a pedo. That's the story. Someone was playing a joke, it went to Twitter, and we didn't realize it. I am not a pedo, but sadly, I worked with one for a while... well, kinda, Bob was kinda a guest on the show more than a member. Why did you make such shitty/troll content anyway back then? Man, it's been a real rollercoaster... if I knew back then what I know now... I think Underbelly or Silvermania would have made it... I let too many cooks in the kitchen, let friends have business control or creative whatever... I should've just been a solo act and just made fun shit... I mean, I think we did a lot of good stuff too... like, Underbelly was partnered with ScrewAttack and Normal Boots for a time... we were with the first ever YouTube network... but, all that pivoting fucked the channel up because of release schedules or what they wanted us to make... the production has always been good... Underbelly was the first YouTube channel with every video being in full 1080p back in 2010... but then we deleted every video and reuploaed them because our network needed us to for whatever reason... just a ton of issues... from back-end stuff to it not being fun anymore... to seeing others soar with similar content... it made me bitter. Which led to Silvermania becoming a weapon of trolling. I always skimmed the surface of making YouTube successful for me... hell, we pissed a LOT of content creators off too... I am STILL rebuilding those bridges even with being on Cinemassacre. I was just pissed off at the world and thought I knew better... when, we should've been focused on making fun stuff consistently and less toxic. That simple. Trying to do that now I guess. Why did you say the N-word? I really regret this. I mean, even without cancel culture and all that. It was just stupid. The one time was back in 2012, on YouTube, and was part of a skit where I was saying the N-word was actually "Nerd," because of the Big Bang Theory or some point I was making about Nerds being taken advantage of or whatever by Hollywood... it was a really dumb comparison. I even had my black roommate in the video with me to sell the joke... it was dumb, but edgy humor was cool at the time. I have since removed the video and apologized. The other time was just being a drunk-comedian with my friends trying to say the most fucked up stuff possible, same year. Kinda like when Kramer from Seinfeld did that dumb stand-up routine when he said it. But, I guess my ex-roommate decided to record it and post it this year for clout. That said... I am not a racist, I've never said anything remotely racist after the fact, and never from a place of hate. I'm a pretty liberal guy, not that it matters. But, I apologize, clearly won't ever happen again... and hasn't in 8 years. Why are you dressed as a Klansman next to Nazi and confederate flag? Whoops! Okay, this is a bad look. I can see this coupled with the N-word thing looking really bad... or being a Jewish guy next to a swastica. Clearly, this was a skit. The flags were from a WW2 and Civil War reenactment troop I knew, someone has to play the bad guys and their gear was really authentic. I don't own racist or facist flags. (Though, I kinda want a Mobile Infantry flag from Starship Troopers.) People share the photo around, but never notice the game collection behind me or the minture Hitler on my shoulder... it was a skit we filmed, but never fully released, and has since been taken down... it was part of our Lost Episodes clip-show. The joke was that I'm the "Racist Video Game Nerd," because everyone else on YouTube already picked all the names to sound more like AVGN. Like the Sad Video Game Nerd or whatever. So, the "RVGN" was going to review a game, then get thwarted by a group of racially diverse characters... so... just a stupid skit... that was never fully finished because we knew it was bad. Plus, the RVGN is the bad guy... he's shown in a negative light. Okay, I think that'll answer a bunch of questions you may have... so, yeah. AMA. Oh, and sorry if I blocked you on Twitter or whatever. I'll add you back if you want. [EDIT] I will get to EVERYONE'S QUESTIONS, there are just a ton and I like to work and sleep and eat and shit.
Comprehensive Guide about BB and how it shall take off in coming years
Alright folks, here's the comprehensive guide about the BB products, revenue details, customers, and what's in the store in the future. It's quite a lengthy one, please bare with me as you read and this is the first time I looked up regarding a company at this depth. Some background on the John Chen, who took up a massive challenge when he was the CEO for Sybase where the stock price was around 4-5$. But when he sold off to SAP it was around 65$, although it took 10 years to accomplish. He understands the business quite well and knows where to focus to generate more revenue and certainly be the best in what they do and provide the best to their customers.
Why should companies embrace BB products?
Best-in-class security
Safety
Reliability
Achievements:
18 of the G20 governments as customers
Leader in EPP sector
Only software company to attain various security certifications from US Govt
BlackBerry’s solutions address over 96% of the collective threats (Frost & Sullivan research data)
Named as a Leader in Gartner’s 2019 Magic Quadrant for Unified Endpoint Management Tools for the fourth consecutive year
Collaboration with Ansys to support BlackBerry QNX’s “RTOS” for connected and autonomous vehicles
WM Motor to embed BlackBerry’s QNX Neutrino Realtime Operating System and other BlackBerry QNX software products within the company’s third-generation SUVs
Integration of the QNX Platform for Digital Cockpits in MARELLI Electronics China’s eCockpit and Digital Cluster solution
Reece Group is now using BlackBerry Cylance technology to protect thousands of endpoints across its retail stores and offices in Australia and the United States
Agreement with ETAS GmbH, a subsidiary of Bosch, to cooperate on the joint development and marketing of an automotive software platform based on the AUTOSAR Adaptive standard
Deeper partnership with Jaguar Land Rover for the use of the Company’s AI and machine learning technologies, BlackBerry QNX software and BlackBerry Cybersecurity Consulting services
LG Electronics Inc. to accelerate the deployment of connected and autonomous vehicle technology for automotive OEMs and Tier 1 vendors
SYNNEX Corporation to distribute the BlackBerry Enterprise Mobility Suite in the United States and accelerate partner recruitment for the BlackBerry Enterprise Partner Program
BlackBerry Limited announced that the NATO Communications and Information (NCI) Agency has awarded a contract for BlackBerry’s SecuSUITE® for Government to encrypt the conversations of its technology and cyber leaders
Certifications Let's highlight the security certifications BB got in 2020. Before you read about the certifications which BB got, let this statement sink in deeply
No other software vendor in the cybersecurity space has been awarded more security certification by the US Government than BlackBerry.
In Q3 2020, BlackBerry UEM achieved the National Security Agency, NSA, commercial solution for classified program approval. This adds to the portfolio of US government certifications we have received for BlackBerry UEM including the NIAP-certification, the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Product List, which I think we talked about last quarter, DoDIN APL, FedRAMP and FIPS 140-2. Context from Q3 2020 earnings call: Recognition As you see from multiple research firms, BB stands out in what are they doing Ref: https://imgur.com/2CMg3OV https://imgur.com/qE13Y32
Which Markets BB has and will be targeting?
IoT
Cybersecurity
Connected transportation
Healthcare
Financial services
Government markets
Energy
Oil
Gas
What Products are offered by BB?
I'll share brief info about the below products specific to QNX itself QNX OTA: QNX Over the Air (OTA) is a customized remote software update solution addressing the increasingly complex requirements of embedded system manufacturers. It can be tailored to seamlessly and securely update and manage endpoints on a variety of embedded systems. QNX Acoustics Management Platform: Design and manage the total vehicle sonic experience with a pure software solution designed to run on general-purpose application processor cores for cost-effective high-fidelity sound. QNX Multimedia Suite: If the OEM or developers would like to use a framework to build multimedia players. QNX Black Channel Communications: It provides reliable data transmission and consumption and greatly reduces the scope of certification while eliminating the need to have a safety certified network stack. It's critical across automotive, robotics, industrial controls, and medical device industries. It can run on QNX® OS (SDP 7.0 or QOS 2.1), Linux® or SafeRTOS. QNX ADAS: Integrates sensor feeds from diverse sources (Camera, Radar, LiDAR, IMU, GPS sensors, etc.) into your critical embedded systems, including autonomous driving applications. RADAR: Launched in 2016, it is a complete asset tracking solution providing reliable visibility to trailer, chassis, containers and equipment. These ruggedized devices are easy-to-install, low maintenance and long-lasting to minimize operational disruptions and maximize your ROI. How it’s different from rest of the competitors:
High volume of collection, up to 100 times more than other solutions in the market
It is designed for cloud-based – cloud-hosted business analytics applications, and reporting in one integrated and scalable platform
Long lasting battery, its modular architecture, and the ease of installation
How can the BB retain leading position in different sectors?
The Company’s goal is to remain a leader in regulated industries and other core verticals by continuing to extend the functionality of its secure BlackBerry Spark® software platform (UEM + UES).
How does the EV Sector Exponential Growth help BB?
Well, the 2020 to 2022 is a period for gaining significant momentum in the Smart EV sector and which shall rapidly accelerate from 2023 to 2025. As we are noticing multiple companies in EV sector trying to launch their products. Most of the companies would love to be part of the growing EV sector as it just the beginning excluding TESLA. They will eventually develop products/platforms for OEM's and Tier1 and provide it as a service. As EV sector evolves more, we should see more partnerships across other companies which aren't part of BB yet might be inclined to use at least one product. As the BB product offerings are diverse and the customer success stories about how they have played a role while manufacturing their own EV products with minimal efforts can boost the marketing efforts. Chen stated they are going after the other 6 OEM's which aren't using the Blackberry yet. Currently, BlackBerry QNX has design wins with 19 of top 25 Electric Vehicle OEMs, who together have 61% of EV market.
How is BB coping up during the COVID?
The company expects BlackBerry QNX revenue to be negatively impacted by a slowdown in automotive market related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of which could be partially offset by increased customer demand for the Company’s endpoint security and productivity solutions that support business continuity and remote working environments, including the BlackBerry Spark platform, SecuSUITE and BlackBerry AtHoc.
What's upcoming and where is BB focusing strategically?
The Company is developing a concept system to integrate BlackBerry Spark capabilities, including AI and machine learning technologies, with BlackBerry QNX automotive solutions. Have to watch out for more information during the earnings calls.
How was the Customers growth among BB products?
QNX: QNX was acquired by BB in 2010, right from that moment, BB started its journey in Automotive industry. Initially, it has launched Infotainments and Telematic under QNX product category and it was deployed on leading car manufacturers. It started branching out and was able to offer more products under QNX. Now it is has aligned itself very well for the next gen EV cars. Adoption of QNX products from 2016 to 2020:
Under the terms of our agreement, BlackBerry will own all the commercial relationships with customers and will share revenues with AWS. The target is to be in the 2023 year’s auto model, with possibly potentially some professional services prior to it. While it is too early for us to provide a revenue outlook, we are confident that BlackBerry IVY addresses a very large market opportunity that will greatly increase our ASP.
Cylance: It is part of the Blackberry Spark product under UES category Typically, Cylance subscription period is 1 to 3 yrs. based on the deal’s BB made. Leader in EPP (Endpoint Protection Platform) and they are able to catch with competitors in EDR (Endpoint Detection and Response) Customers: Added 279 new customers and new active subscription customer growth was about 15%. Notable new customers include General Motors, Becton Dickinson, Phillips Healthcare, SKF, which is one of Sweden’s largest manufacturers, the New Zealand Defense Force and the United States Census Bureau, just to name a few. Verizon launched their business internet secure offering, which includes our BlackBerry smart AV antivirus product and Cisco’s Umbrella security service. Blackberry Spark: Spark is collection of BlackBerry Cylance, BlackBerry® UEM, BlackBerry® Dynamics™ and BlackBerry® Workspaces products. BB to pushing its efforts for customers to choose this product in 2021. Spark, as a reminder, is a combination of UEM and UES, the Unified Endpoint Security offerings. In the 2020 Q2, Q3, BB made good progress in both the government, and financial services verticals with customer wins
U.S. Army
The United States Air Force, which upgraded over 90,000 users from UEM to the Spark Suite.
U.S. Postal Service
IRS
Department of Energy
Department of Justice
Raymond James Financial
Citibank
German Bundesbank
Bank of India
Government of Rwanda
UK Ministry of Defence
Royal Canadian Mint
Banco de Mexico
New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade
Rolls Royce
Lloyds Bank
Societe Générale
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
American Express
CIBC
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Qatar National Bank
The National Commercial Bank
Absa Bank
The Development Bank of Singapore
In addition, they had success in verticals including healthcare and manufacturing sector. Up on the acquisition of Cylance company, BB was able to integrate it with its existing products which will be part of UES suite. Customers are inclined to upgrade from UEM (Unified Endpoint Management) to UES (Unified Endpoint Security) Customers are eager to get with UES:
Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Borse
ConvergeOne
Multiple ministries of the Dutch government
UEM Suite UEM Suite was added to the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Products List (DoDIN APL). BlackBerry is the only UEM vendor that has achieved this level of approval to date. This achievement is based on the completion of cybersecurity and interoperability certifications. This approval will provide us better access and a more streamlined approval process. This should naturally lead to greater revenue opportunities going forward. The latest release of UEM has also recently achieved NIAP accreditation AtHoc: Zoom was one of the customers who is using AtHoc product, after we know what happened to the stock when street found out that it wasn't secure. In this way, Zoom can highly secure way to hold virtual meetings in this new work-from-anywhere environment. Even, Microsoft Teams and ServiceNow’s Now platforms are on AtHoc. As we know, Teams market leader has 116 million active users and Service Now 51%, IT Service management. Customers:
NYSE
Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Edmonton Police Service
US Department of Transportation
BlackBerry Radar: In 2020, Canadian Pacific Railway agreed to deploy product on 2,000 of its domestic intermodal chassis. In 2019, one of the top three U.S. retailers specializing in home improvement. The customer placed a 2,500 unit’s order. In 2019 fiscal year, they have added 50 new customers and recurring revenue from the existing customers.
A big part of our competitive advantage is the BlackBerry legacy experience in designing a reliable, secure solution,” Plaat said. “That’s an important issue in this industry with high capital assets that you keep for years. The ROI is very good for a reliable solution like ours.”
Customers:
Almon Equipment
Titanium Transportation Group
KreilKamp Trucking
RightLane Carrier
Axsun
Matson Logistics
CP
New Malwa Express
CTS (Contract Transport Services)
Polaris Transportation Group
XTL
BB Revenue:
Check the Spreadsheet for the Revenue Sources. 2021 Fiscal year Note: Software and Services include these products IoT, QNX, BlackBerry Spark, AtHoc, Radar. The revenue got impacted due to 2020 chaos especially on the QNX product side. According to the earning calls. There are still on track to maintain the gross margin over 70% and dollar net retention rate is above 90%. As you see, the gross margin has been consistent past few years and revenue is steadily increasing every year. Revenue, Gross Margin, Net Income, EPS for years 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016 Growth in Revenue from Products from 2019-2013 Notes: In 2019, due to restructuring, BB was unable to close deals, we should see +ve in 2020. IoT: Comprised of QNX products, UEM, & Radar Other: Handheld Devices and Service Access Fee (SAF) Since BB was moving away from manufacturing of devices gradually, in 2020 most of it done by third party companies. That’s why we have negative growth under Other.
Pricing for BB products
QNX Pricing: As there are many modules under QNX, like hypervisor, ADAS, clusters, cockpit, IVI. The cost ranges anywhere from the low-single digit dollars to literally high-single digit or low-double digit dollars per module. Trefis estimates BlackBerry generates about $4 in QNX revenue per vehicle. Automakers are only expected to ship about 62 million new vehicles this year, according to Statista Research. Assuming QNX is installed on at least half of those vehicles, BlackBerry would generate about $120 million in annual sales -- or nearly a fifth of its trailing 12-month software and services revenue -- from QNX this year. Link: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/07/investors-overreacting-blackberry-deal-with-amazon/ Unfortunately, we don't know the exact price the QNX OS costs or per say other modules under QNX. If more modules of QNX are used, then it's adds up and the Average Rate for Per Unit might be 4x or 5x. This gives us an idea about how to get more revenue from QNX itself when the manufacturer would use other modules under QNX apart from OS. We have already seen list of the OEM's from previous posts and in the above spreadsheet you saw list of the QNX products certain OEM's are using IoT subscription period is typically 4 yrs. Radar Pricing: Estimation in 2017: BlackBerry charges $10 to $20 per month for every trailer connected to Radar. The Go-to-Market objective is to have approximately a 50-50 split in Radar sales between BlackBerry’s channel partners and its direct sales force. BlackBerry Radar partners typically sell only this particular solution. Recently, BB was able to expand channel ecosystem to more than 12 channel partners, this new partnership might help BB capture more of the logistics and transportation area. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/blackberry-radar-expands-channel-ecosystem-with-new-partners-301052631.html https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackberry-recovery/born-again-blackberry-canadian-icon-hopes-to-ride-trucks-to-growth-idUSKBN1901P1 Cylance Pricing: Cylance might charge 55$ per endpoint per year. Announced that Forrester found that BlackBerry Cylance’s AI-driven endpoint security products delivered a 99 percent return on investment. We will see more revenue in 2021 as we shared earlier that customers who bought UEM are excited about UES too. At present, the market share is below 1%. Ref: https://www.datanyze.com/market-share/ep--359 The outlook of the Cylance in 2021 and further Projected Product Sector Revenue Growth by 2025: QNX: According to survey, the Global In-Vehicle Infotainment Market size is expected to reach $42.7 billion by 2025 (This is where we shall see more competition from different OEM manufacturers as they build their own products) Global Market Insights, Inc. has recently added a new report on automotive operating system market which estimates the global market valuation for automotive OS will cross US$ 4.5 billion by 2026 And the QNX OS (Just the OS) segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of nearly 15% from 2020 to 2026 https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/24/2132346/0/en/Automotive-OS-Market-to-hit-USD-4-5-Bn-by-2026-Global-Market-Insights-Inc.html Endpoint Protection (Cylance): The global endpoint security market is expected to grow from 13.58 billion $ in 2020 to 19.24 billion $ in 2025 at a CAGR of 7.6% during the forecast period. https://www.marketdataforecast.com/market-reports/endpoint-security-market. Assuming the market share in endpoint increases to ~3%. It can be around 577 million Asset Management (Radar): Global asset tracking market will reach $36.3B by 2025, growing at 15% CAGR https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/04/1995009/0/en/Global-Asset-Tracking-Market-2020-2025-Insights-Into-Technologies-Solutions-and-the-Ecosystem-Including-Major-Players.html We have to know what the priority level for BB for this product and how much market share they are targeting in the upcoming years. It’s quite early to say about it and the contribution to the revenue is insignificant compared to other products. Challenges: QNX: Toyota, VW, Mercedes Benz have started taking route of AGL (Automotive Grade Linux) which is an open source (free to use) which implies the QNX market share in OS is waning. These are big manufacturers and how blackberry shall adapt is wait and see game. There is always a case where companies might decide not to use more of the QNX modules just the OS, this will impact the Average Selling Price (ASP) per car as well as the revenue since those modules add up 4x-5x ASP. IVY: Revenue from Blackberry IVY shall be more reflective from 2023, stated by Chen. So, there is uncertainty in this area and no revenue estimate. We have to see how this partnership plays out how companies are willing to adopt cloud platform for insights and management of the automotive software’s. Cylance: Currently, the market is highly competitive, and BB has to make it way to top 10 and capture more market share. In 2021, it shall unfold more about it as we are seeing rapid growth in IoT sector across various sectors. The BB is in the right position to capture more of the automotive market and we have to see how it shall play out in coming years when EV sector is full blown and more cars are delivered, and security threats increase. Also, it offers the endpoint protection, which certainly companies can benefit but not necessarily the SMB which are driven through e-commerce platforms. Radar: It’s barely scratching the surface in this sector and as there are bigger sharks who have been in the market for long time. In the second quarter of fiscal 2019, the Company previously stated that it expected to generate $100 million in cumulative revenue from its BlackBerry Radar asset tracking solution over the next three years. The Company no longer expects to generate this revenue within this time frame. (This is a set back and there are other competitors who have been in the Logistics and Transportation Industry for quite some time). In general, BB has to pitch itself more aggressively in other sectors especially in Medical, Industrial, Oil and Energy. Considering the certifications they have and the clients they serve. Thanks to OP's and go give a read at these DD's too: https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ks4s3s/bb_king_the_blast_from_the_past_with_the/ https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l37ktg/bb_weekend_due_diligence_confirmation_bias/ Target Price in 2021: 25-30 (by not considering crazy valuations into account). I personally believe if the IVY platform and Spark product revenue increases then we can certainly see the stock price 4x-5x in coming years. Positions: 400 shares @ 12 and 2 Jan 20 2023 SP 15. I plan to add more as I see the potential and growth in the newly introduced products. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice, I'm merely a random person who loves BB and would like to see this company fly to new heigths. Cheers to everyone!! Edit1: thanks u/melbogia, added the date which I missed earlier for the calls.
Comprehensive Guide about BB and how it shall take off in coming years
Alright folks, here's the comprehensive guide about the BB products, revenue details, customers, and what's in the store in the future. It's quite a lengthy one, please bare with me as you read and this is the first time I looked up regarding a company at this depth. Some background on the John Chen, who took up a massive challenge when he was the CEO for Sybase where the stock price was around 4-5$. But when he sold off to SAP it was around 65$, although it took 10 years to accomplish. He understands the business quite well and knows where to focus to generate more revenue and certainly be the best in what they do and provide the best to their customers.
Why should companies embrace BB products?
Best-in-class security
Safety
Reliability
Achievements:
18 of the G20 governments as customers
Leader in EPP sector
Only software company to attain various security certifications from US Govt
BlackBerry’s solutions address over 96% of the collective threats (Frost & Sullivan research data)
Named as a Leader in Gartner’s 2019 Magic Quadrant for Unified Endpoint Management Tools for the fourth consecutive year
Collaboration with Ansys to support BlackBerry QNX’s “RTOS” for connected and autonomous vehicles
WM Motor to embed BlackBerry’s QNX Neutrino Realtime Operating System and other BlackBerry QNX software products within the company’s third-generation SUVs
Integration of the QNX Platform for Digital Cockpits in MARELLI Electronics China’s eCockpit and Digital Cluster solution
Reece Group is now using BlackBerry Cylance technology to protect thousands of endpoints across its retail stores and offices in Australia and the United States
Agreement with ETAS GmbH, a subsidiary of Bosch, to cooperate on the joint development and marketing of an automotive software platform based on the AUTOSAR Adaptive standard
Deeper partnership with Jaguar Land Rover for the use of the Company’s AI and machine learning technologies, BlackBerry QNX software and BlackBerry Cybersecurity Consulting services
LG Electronics Inc. to accelerate the deployment of connected and autonomous vehicle technology for automotive OEMs and Tier 1 vendors
SYNNEX Corporation to distribute the BlackBerry Enterprise Mobility Suite in the United States and accelerate partner recruitment for the BlackBerry Enterprise Partner Program
BlackBerry Limited announced that the NATO Communications and Information (NCI) Agency has awarded a contract for BlackBerry’s SecuSUITE® for Government to encrypt the conversations of its technology and cyber leaders
Certifications Let's highlight the security certifications BB got in 2020. Before you read about the certifications which BB got, let this statement sink in deeply
No other software vendor in the cybersecurity space has been awarded more security certification by the US Government than BlackBerry.
In Q3 2020, BlackBerry UEM achieved the National Security Agency, NSA, commercial solution for classified program approval. This adds to the portfolio of US government certifications we have received for BlackBerry UEM including the NIAP-certification, the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Product List, which I think we talked about last quarter, DoDIN APL, FedRAMP and FIPS 140-2. Context from Q3 2020 earnings call: Recognition As you see from multiple research firms, BB stands out in what are they doing Ref: https://imgur.com/2CMg3OV https://imgur.com/qE13Y32
Which Markets BB has and will be targeting?
IoT
Cybersecurity
Connected transportation
Healthcare
Financial services
Government markets
Energy
Oil
Gas
What Products are offered by BB?
I'll share brief info about the below products specific to QNX itself QNX OTA: QNX Over the Air (OTA) is a customized remote software update solution addressing the increasingly complex requirements of embedded system manufacturers. It can be tailored to seamlessly and securely update and manage endpoints on a variety of embedded systems. QNX Acoustics Management Platform: Design and manage the total vehicle sonic experience with a pure software solution designed to run on general-purpose application processor cores for cost-effective high-fidelity sound. QNX Multimedia Suite: If the OEM or developers would like to use a framework to build multimedia players. QNX Black Channel Communications: It provides reliable data transmission and consumption and greatly reduces the scope of certification while eliminating the need to have a safety certified network stack. It's critical across automotive, robotics, industrial controls, and medical device industries. It can run on QNX® OS (SDP 7.0 or QOS 2.1), Linux® or SafeRTOS. QNX ADAS: Integrates sensor feeds from diverse sources (Camera, Radar, LiDAR, IMU, GPS sensors, etc.) into your critical embedded systems, including autonomous driving applications. RADAR: Launched in 2016, it is a complete asset tracking solution providing reliable visibility to trailer, chassis, containers and equipment. These ruggedized devices are easy-to-install, low maintenance and long-lasting to minimize operational disruptions and maximize your ROI. How it’s different from rest of the competitors:
High volume of collection, up to 100 times more than other solutions in the market
It is designed for cloud-based – cloud-hosted business analytics applications, and reporting in one integrated and scalable platform
Long lasting battery, its modular architecture, and the ease of installation
How can the BB retain leading position in different sectors?
The Company’s goal is to remain a leader in regulated industries and other core verticals by continuing to extend the functionality of its secure BlackBerry Spark® software platform (UEM + UES).
How does the EV Sector Exponential Growth help BB?
Well, the 2020 to 2022 is a period for gaining significant momentum in the Smart EV sector and which shall rapidly accelerate from 2023 to 2025. As we are noticing multiple companies in EV sector trying to launch their products. Most of the companies would love to be part of the growing EV sector as it just the beginning excluding TESLA. They will eventually develop products/platforms for OEM's and Tier1 and provide it as a service. As EV sector evolves more, we should see more partnerships across other companies which aren't part of BB yet might be inclined to use at least one product. As the BB product offerings are diverse and the customer success stories about how they have played a role while manufacturing their own EV products with minimal efforts can boost the marketing efforts. Chen stated they are going after the other 6 OEM's which aren't using the Blackberry yet. Currently, BlackBerry QNX has design wins with 19 of top 25 Electric Vehicle OEMs, who together have 61% of EV market.
How is BB coping up during the COVID?
The company expects BlackBerry QNX revenue to be negatively impacted by a slowdown in automotive market related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of which could be partially offset by increased customer demand for the Company’s endpoint security and productivity solutions that support business continuity and remote working environments, including the BlackBerry Spark platform, SecuSUITE and BlackBerry AtHoc.
What's upcoming and where is BB focusing strategically?
The Company is developing a concept system to integrate BlackBerry Spark capabilities, including AI and machine learning technologies, with BlackBerry QNX automotive solutions. Have to watch out for more information during the earnings calls.
How was the Customers growth among BB products?
QNX: QNX was acquired by BB in 2010, right from that moment, BB started its journey in Automotive industry. Initially, it has launched Infotainments and Telematic under QNX product category and it was deployed on leading car manufacturers. It started branching out and was able to offer more products under QNX. Now it is has aligned itself very well for the next gen EV cars. Adoption of QNX products from 2016 to 2020:
Under the terms of our agreement, BlackBerry will own all the commercial relationships with customers and will share revenues with AWS. The target is to be in the 2023 year’s auto model, with possibly potentially some professional services prior to it. While it is too early for us to provide a revenue outlook, we are confident that BlackBerry IVY addresses a very large market opportunity that will greatly increase our ASP.
Cylance: It is part of the Blackberry Spark product under UES category Typically, Cylance subscription period is 1 to 3 yrs. based on the deal’s BB made. Leader in EPP (Endpoint Protection Platform) and they are able to catch with competitors in EDR (Endpoint Detection and Response) Customers: Added 279 new customers and new active subscription customer growth was about 15%. Notable new customers include General Motors, Becton Dickinson, Phillips Healthcare, SKF, which is one of Sweden’s largest manufacturers, the New Zealand Defense Force and the United States Census Bureau, just to name a few. Verizon launched their business internet secure offering, which includes our BlackBerry smart AV antivirus product and Cisco’s Umbrella security service. Blackberry Spark: Spark is collection of BlackBerry Cylance, BlackBerry® UEM, BlackBerry® Dynamics™ and BlackBerry® Workspaces products. BB to pushing its efforts for customers to choose this product in 2021. Spark, as a reminder, is a combination of UEM and UES, the Unified Endpoint Security offerings. In the 2020 Q2, Q3, BB made good progress in both the government, and financial services verticals with customer wins
U.S. Army
The United States Air Force, which upgraded over 90,000 users from UEM to the Spark Suite.
U.S. Postal Service
IRS
Department of Energy
Department of Justice
Raymond James Financial
Citibank
German Bundesbank
Bank of India
Government of Rwanda
UK Ministry of Defence
Royal Canadian Mint
Banco de Mexico
New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade
Rolls Royce
Lloyds Bank
Societe Générale
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
American Express
CIBC
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Qatar National Bank
The National Commercial Bank
Absa Bank
The Development Bank of Singapore
In addition, they had success in verticals including healthcare and manufacturing sector. Up on the acquisition of Cylance company, BB was able to integrate it with its existing products which will be part of UES suite. Customers are inclined to upgrade from UEM (Unified Endpoint Management) to UES (Unified Endpoint Security) Customers are eager to get with UES:
Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Borse
ConvergeOne
Multiple ministries of the Dutch government
UEM Suite UEM Suite was added to the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Products List (DoDIN APL). BlackBerry is the only UEM vendor that has achieved this level of approval to date. This achievement is based on the completion of cybersecurity and interoperability certifications. This approval will provide us better access and a more streamlined approval process. This should naturally lead to greater revenue opportunities going forward. The latest release of UEM has also recently achieved NIAP accreditation AtHoc: Zoom was one of the customers who is using AtHoc product, after we know what happened to the stock when street found out that it wasn't secure. In this way, Zoom can highly secure way to hold virtual meetings in this new work-from-anywhere environment. Even, Microsoft Teams and ServiceNow’s Now platforms are on AtHoc. As we know, Teams market leader has 116 million active users and Service Now 51%, IT Service management. Customers:
NYSE
Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Edmonton Police Service
US Department of Transportation
BlackBerry Radar: In 2020, Canadian Pacific Railway agreed to deploy product on 2,000 of its domestic intermodal chassis. In 2019, one of the top three U.S. retailers specializing in home improvement. The customer placed a 2,500 unit’s order. In 2019 fiscal year, they have added 50 new customers and recurring revenue from the existing customers.
A big part of our competitive advantage is the BlackBerry legacy experience in designing a reliable, secure solution,” Plaat said. “That’s an important issue in this industry with high capital assets that you keep for years. The ROI is very good for a reliable solution like ours.”
Customers:
Almon Equipment
Titanium Transportation Group
KreilKamp Trucking
RightLane Carrier
Axsun
Matson Logistics
CP
New Malwa Express
CTS (Contract Transport Services)
Polaris Transportation Group
XTL
BB Revenue:
Check the Spreadsheet for the Revenue Sources. 2021 Fiscal year Note: Software and Services include these products IoT, QNX, BlackBerry Spark, AtHoc, Radar. The revenue got impacted due to 2020 chaos especially on the QNX product side. According to the earning calls. There are still on track to maintain the gross margin over 70% and dollar net retention rate is above 90%. As you see, the gross margin has been consistent past few years and revenue is steadily increasing every year. Revenue, Gross Margin, Net Income, EPS for years 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016 Growth in Revenue from Products from 2019-2013 Notes: In 2019, due to restructuring, BB was unable to close deals, we should see +ve in 2020. IoT: Comprised of QNX products, UEM, & Radar Other: Handheld Devices and Service Access Fee (SAF) Since BB was moving away from manufacturing of devices gradually, in 2020 most of it done by third party companies. That’s why we have negative growth under Other.
Pricing for BB products
QNX Pricing: As there are many modules under QNX, like hypervisor, ADAS, clusters, cockpit, IVI. The cost ranges anywhere from the low-single digit dollars to literally high-single digit or low-double digit dollars per module. Trefis estimates BlackBerry generates about $4 in QNX revenue per vehicle. Automakers are only expected to ship about 62 million new vehicles this year, according to Statista Research. Assuming QNX is installed on at least half of those vehicles, BlackBerry would generate about $120 million in annual sales -- or nearly a fifth of its trailing 12-month software and services revenue -- from QNX this year. Link: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/07/investors-overreacting-blackberry-deal-with-amazon/ Unfortunately, we don't know the exact price the QNX OS costs or per say other modules under QNX. If more modules of QNX are used, then it's adds up and the Average Rate for Per Unit might be 4x or 5x. This gives us an idea about how to get more revenue from QNX itself when the manufacturer would use other modules under QNX apart from OS. We have already seen list of the OEM's from previous posts and in the above spreadsheet you saw list of the QNX products certain OEM's are using IoT subscription period is typically 4 yrs. Radar Pricing: Estimation in 2017: BlackBerry charges $10 to $20 per month for every trailer connected to Radar. The Go-to-Market objective is to have approximately a 50-50 split in Radar sales between BlackBerry’s channel partners and its direct sales force. BlackBerry Radar partners typically sell only this particular solution. Recently, BB was able to expand channel ecosystem to more than 12 channel partners, this new partnership might help BB capture more of the logistics and transportation area. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/blackberry-radar-expands-channel-ecosystem-with-new-partners-301052631.html https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackberry-recovery/born-again-blackberry-canadian-icon-hopes-to-ride-trucks-to-growth-idUSKBN1901P1 Cylance Pricing: Cylance might charge 55$ per endpoint per year. Announced that Forrester found that BlackBerry Cylance’s AI-driven endpoint security products delivered a 99 percent return on investment. We will see more revenue in 2021 as we shared earlier that customers who bought UEM are excited about UES too. At present, the market share is below 1%. Ref: https://www.datanyze.com/market-share/ep--359 The outlook of the Cylance in 2021 and further Projected Product Sector Revenue Growth by 2025: QNX: According to survey, the Global In-Vehicle Infotainment Market size is expected to reach $42.7 billion by 2025 (This is where we shall see more competition from different OEM manufacturers as they build their own products) Global Market Insights, Inc. has recently added a new report on automotive operating system market which estimates the global market valuation for automotive OS will cross US$ 4.5 billion by 2026 And the QNX OS (Just the OS) segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of nearly 15% from 2020 to 2026 https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/24/2132346/0/en/Automotive-OS-Market-to-hit-USD-4-5-Bn-by-2026-Global-Market-Insights-Inc.html Endpoint Protection (Cylance): The global endpoint security market is expected to grow from 13.58 billion $ in 2020 to 19.24 billion $ in 2025 at a CAGR of 7.6% during the forecast period. https://www.marketdataforecast.com/market-reports/endpoint-security-market. Assuming the market share in endpoint increases to ~3%. It can be around 577 million Asset Management (Radar): Global asset tracking market will reach $36.3B by 2025, growing at 15% CAGR https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/04/1995009/0/en/Global-Asset-Tracking-Market-2020-2025-Insights-Into-Technologies-Solutions-and-the-Ecosystem-Including-Major-Players.html We have to know what the priority level for BB for this product and how much market share they are targeting in the upcoming years. It’s quite early to say about it and the contribution to the revenue is insignificant compared to other products. Challenges: QNX: Toyota, VW, Mercedes Benz have started taking route of AGL (Automotive Grade Linux) which is an open source (free to use) which implies the QNX market share in OS is waning. These are big manufacturers and how blackberry shall adapt is wait and see game. There is always a case where companies might decide not to use more of the QNX modules just the OS, this will impact the Average Selling Price (ASP) per car as well as the revenue since those modules add up 4x-5x ASP. IVY: Revenue from Blackberry IVY shall be more reflective from 2023, stated by Chen. So, there is uncertainty in this area and no revenue estimate. We have to see how this partnership plays out how companies are willing to adopt cloud platform for insights and management of the automotive software’s. Cylance: Currently, the market is highly competitive, and BB has to make it way to top 10 and capture more market share. In 2021, it shall unfold more about it as we are seeing rapid growth in IoT sector across various sectors. The BB is in the right position to capture more of the automotive market and we have to see how it shall play out in coming years when EV sector is full blown and more cars are delivered, and security threats increase. Also, it offers the endpoint protection, which certainly companies can benefit but not necessarily the SMB which are driven through e-commerce platforms. Radar: It’s barely scratching the surface in this sector and as there are bigger sharks who have been in the market for long time. In the second quarter of fiscal 2019, the Company previously stated that it expected to generate $100 million in cumulative revenue from its BlackBerry Radar asset tracking solution over the next three years. The Company no longer expects to generate this revenue within this time frame. (This is a set back and there are other competitors who have been in the Logistics and Transportation Industry for quite some time). In general, BB has to pitch itself more aggressively in other sectors especially in Medical, Industrial, Oil and Energy. Considering the certifications they have and the clients they serve. Thanks to OP's and go give a read at these DD's too: https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ks4s3s/bb_king_the_blast_from_the_past_with_the/ https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l37ktg/bb_weekend_due_diligence_confirmation_bias/ Target Price in 2021: 25-30 (by not considering crazy valuations into account). I personally believe if the IVY platform and Spark product revenue increases then we can certainly see the stock price 4x-5x in coming years. Positions: 400 shares @ 12 and 2 Jan 20 2023 SP 15. I plan to add more as I see the potential and growth in the newly introduced products. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice, I'm merely a random person who loves BB and would like to see this company fly to new heigths. Cheers to everyone!! Edit1: thanks u/melbogia, added the date which I missed earlier for the calls.
Autochess: Market Status and Design Analysis [effort post]
This article was written with thefeedback of ~300 highly engaged players from the different autochess reddit communities (TFT, DOTA Underlords, Chess Rush...), which participated in interviews and on a poll whose results are availablehere.They’re especially thanked by name at the end of the article. In January 2019, Drodo Studio’s Dota Auto Chess mod became insanely popular. Many companies (including household names like Valve, Riot, Ubisoft and Blizzard) rushed to release their own versions. It seemed like the beginning of something big like MOBA or Battle Royale. But it has been more than a year now and the hype seems to have vanished completely. As quickly as it rose, it went away… This is the first on a series of articles where we will analyze the autochess genre. Here we will be exploring the genre’s history, its current market situation and its audience. And also, what are the core design issues that autochess suffers and that no one has been able to solve yet. https://preview.redd.it/tc2c19k4ipg61.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=487539f51e104ee7d1aae1a6ded7447b1dee11ca It really helps me if you check this article (or similar content) at my blog https://jb-dev.net/
A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
This wasn’t the first time that a mod got the spotlight and ended up becoming the foundation of a genre. It happened in several major, industry-defining cases before (some of which are Team Shooters, MOBAs, Battle Royale…). But on some of these cases events unfolded differently. So we identify 3 distinctive eras related to the evolution of the industry:
1st Era (2000s): Assimilation
The company whose original software had been modded (or had a close enough game, like Valve) moved quickly to absorb the successful mods and turn them into even more successful products. Since at that point creating a major game release was very complex (required an expensive development, publishing deals and an infrastructure to distribute the product), the deal was profitable for both sides. But it meant the dissolution of the identity of the original creator team, which became embedded in the bigger company culture. https://preview.redd.it/abyi6d2jipg61.png?width=461&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4171bf9344a162e695a75a91d18eec8206b9123
Team Fortress (1999) was originally a Quake mod. And Counter-Strike (2000) started out as a fan-made mod on the Half Life engine. Both games (and creators) were quickly absorbed by Valve.
2nd Era (2010s): Integration
By this time, the previous era model still was going on… but the gaming industry had significatively grown a lot and it was also possible for smaller or even new companies to lure the original developers, and use the mod as a proof for commercial success in order to secure funding and develop it as a full title. The main characteristic of this era is that the original developers were able to keep a bigger share of control and relevance, rather than being integrated as just another gear on a bigger machine, because the companies they joined built their own identity around that key product. This was the case of Riot Games: They were able to raise enough money for the creation of their company through family and angel investors, and then hire some of the original creators of DOTA, and then created League of Legends. https://preview.redd.it/vl6h2l7lipg61.png?width=763&format=png&auto=webp&s=414abb3da2b169966b7bf757a6116f86ef3748d2
Defense of the Ancients (DotA), the foundational title for the MOBA genre, appeared in 2003 as a fan-made custom scenario of Warcraft 3. Foreseeing commercial potential on a full game based on the concept, Riot games and Valve both battled for the Dota IP and the original developers, eventually releasing rival titles League of Legends and Dota2. Interestingly, Blizzard (owners of Warcraft 3) tried to replicate the success without the mod creators in Heroes of the Storm (2015), which hasn’t been as successful as the other two.
A similar case happened with battle royale, which also started in 2013 as a successful DayZ mod created by the modder nicknamed PlayerUnknown. Later, it was transformed into a full product through the acquisition of the developer by a korean company (which would later be renamed as the PUBG Corporation, again showing how the company grew around the game rather than assimilating it). This case hints what would later happen with Auto Chess, since Fortnite wasn’t involved in any way with the original creators. They just copied the concept. Fortnite was a product stuck in a kind of development hell (had been 6 years in the works). As the game was getting close to the release, the developers became impressed by PUBG’s success, so they created a quick Battle Royale spin-off which became insanely popular and eventually ate the rest of the game. https://preview.redd.it/zkdv4jjqipg61.png?width=808&format=png&auto=webp&s=0e7ad39e5db4d83b6b927587b59bf1c81fe0ef85
Player Unknown’s Battlegrounds (2017), foundational title of the modern battle royale genre, is the successor of PlayerUnknown’s DayZ: Battle Royale, a popular mod for DayZ (which on itself is a mod of ArmA3, making it a mod of a mod lol). The success of PUBG inspired Fortnite (a title on the later stages of a troubled development at the time) to spin towards that genre, becoming PUBG‘s main competitor.
3rd Era (2020s): Fragmentation
In all the cases presented previously, the newborn genre ended up in the release of one or two titles which accumulated most of the business. But this hasn’t been the case here. In Autochess, the newborn genre has been quickly fragmented into a big list of competitors. Some are standalone games (like DOTA Underlords or Autochess: Origins), but there’s also several service-model games which released their autochess mode as well (like Hearthstone’s Battlegrounds or TeamFight Tactics, which at the end of the day is a side-game mode of League of Legends). This creates an interesting precedent, which I believe will define future cases where an innovative new game concept appears: The hot idea will be cloned very fast because today the main bottleneck in the industry is having an innovative design that generates player interest and engagement. By 2020, it’s way easier to create and distribute a game, there are way more developers hungry for a hit than ever before, and a lot of service-model games with short development cycles always looking for something juicy for their next update… so new ideas becoming red oceans fast will be the norm. For sure, this won’t affect the ability of small developers and modders to innovate, but it will affect their ability to leverage that to become successful on an independant level, before they get cloned. https://preview.redd.it/51jbq4jwipg61.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdfcfeb82e73b48210c4d93386438268d6dcbe3b
Dota Auto Chess, was a Dota 2 mod which obtained massive popularity. After a failed acquisition from Valve (owners of Dota), the mod developers (Drodo Studios) went to create the mobile standalone Auto Chess: Origins, while still maintaining the PC version linked to Valve. Meanwhile, Riot, Valve, Ubisoft and many other companies developed and released their own autobattlers at a record time, downgrading the genre creators to just another competitor.
On Autochess, the fragmentation and fast release pace came at the cost of innovation, though. These games feature few unique selling points compared to the original DOTA Autochess experience: TFT’s ‘anti-snowballing’character selection rounds, Underlord’s bosses and fast-track mode…. And ultimately, they haven’t fixed the core issues of the original game, which separates it from a true hyper-successful product like MOBA.
MARKET STATUS
Because of the rain of clones, it’s hard to map all the autochess games on the market. It doesn’t help that some of them are available in both PC and Mobile (playable in PC, Mac, Android and iOS), and also they’re exclusive to different PC stores (Dota Underlords is only on Steam, TFT is on Riot’s LoL launcher, and Autochess Origins is only at the Epic Store…). And if that wasn’t enough, the Auto Chess mod in DOTA2 is still very active and has no signs that it’s going to be dying soon. It’s still being regularly updated, and presumably still profitable: Some months ago they added a battle pass system, with its revenue shared between Valve and Drodo. https://preview.redd.it/8w2lrid0jpg61.png?width=854&format=png&auto=webp&s=3697396edd8af2dff3f8e25cb2dd3829635506d0 What’s interesting is that none of the contenders has been able to become massively successful in terms of monetization, at least not in terms comparable to even a second or third tier MOBA. And while there are definitively different tiers of following among these titles (led by Riot Games’ TeamFight Tactics), it seems that none of them has been able togather under its banner a significant amount of players, mobile downloads or Twitch Views… Sources: AppAnnie (mobile metrics), TwitchMetrics (twitch) So ultimately, we’re dividing the autochess market into 3 categories: Squires, Would-be Kings and Peasants.
Squires: Rather than standalone games, these are side-modes of already successful products. Under this category we would list the Battlegrounds mode in Hearthstone, or League of Legends’ TFT, and maybe even the original DOTA Autochess mod. While for sure they’ll have their own dedicated audience that only plays those modes, for most players it’s just a nice and fresh activity integrated within a broader game experience. The squires are the ones that have achieved the biggest success among the autochess genre because they don’t suffer as much backlash from the lack of gameplay depth inherent to the genre, which is harmful for the long term retention: Even if the mode eventually becomes a bit shallow, players have many other things to play, and thus are retained. As a consequence, these games can still monetize significatively by selling renewals of their Battle Passes every new season. Not enough to make them successful on the degree that was expected… but at least it’s something. Other than bringing an additional source of revenue, these modes were useful to their core games: They generated player interest by providing innovative gameplay. Hearthstone’s Battlegrounds was an amazing addition to the CCG genre, and made a lot of people come back to the game to discover the new mode and reengage.
SQUIRE: The gameplay of TeamFight Tactics (slow tempo, no team coordination, decreased attention requirement…) makes it a nicerelief modeto play between LOL matches, which is its purpose in the foreseeable future. If there ever was an intention to make it a standalone game, it vanished together with the player interest on autochess…
Would-be Kings: These are the other two top dogs of the category. They were supposed to rule… but that looking at the numbers they don’t really seem to have ever lifted off. Under this category we would list Auto Chess: Origins and DOTA Underlords. The problem is that their standalone approach means that they suffer the most of the design issues of the genre that we’ve presented in the last section of this article (i.e. flat complexity, lack of mastery depth, lack of progression and rotative meta…). That means that they lost a lot of population over time, and therefore their Battle Pass renewal isn’t as effective at generating revenue : (
DOTA Underlords is an extremely polished product in terms of graphics, character design and UX, and yet another proof that Valve devs really know how to do great games. Too bad they aren’t as good at releasing third installments.
Patricks, gamers looking for a competitive-but-idle experience that doesn’t require full attention and it’s easily reconcilable with their functional adult life.
Grizzlies, competitive players that struggle with fast paced games that demand a high actions per minute ratio and quick reflexes (like MOBAs or competitive shooters).
Warmasters, highly competitive players that enjoy more the area of strategy (setting up goals and planning how to achieve them) rather than tactics (skillful execution of actions and micromanagement).
What these profiles have in common, other than being hardcore gamers and having a big interest in competitive games, is the fact that they enjoy the lack of micromanagement, and the demand of reflexes and dexterity of autochess. This is quite interesting, considering that the genre foundation is so close to MOBAs, which are extremely demanding on those aspects. Overall it seems that they belong to audiences below the MOBA umbrella which are currently being alienated by the bulk of ‘younger and dexterity focused’ players. And when it comes to platforms, it seems that even though the barrier between the classic gaming platforms and mobile is progressively disappearing, the genre is still mainly focused on PC: Out of the ~300 players that answered, 50% said that they play exclusively on PC, 25% played primarily on Mobile, and the remaining 25% played in both. https://preview.redd.it/a25azxggjpg61.png?width=962&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc3677e4203abb44d5b60cc2b55e01f4fe839f74
Players said that they enjoy the focus of the game in planification, as opposed to the focus on execution and performance of MOBAs. And when asked about their main points of frustration, they pointed out 2 main topics: 1.- The strongluck factor that has a strong impact on making you win or lose regardless on how well you played. 2.- The fact that the game eventually becomes shallow and repetitive, fueled by the fact updates were unexciting and not rotating the meta.
Surprised by the fact that players mention randomness as a factor of both enjoyment and frustration? Don’t be! Competitive players tend to have a love-and-hate relationship with luck, because they tend to consider that external factors outside of skills (money spent, better draw…) stole their well deserved victory. And it’s even more frustrating in autochess, because there’s a strong snowball effect: Players that obtain a big advantage early on in the game become hard to catch later on. Which means that a few bad or good draws early on can decide the rest of the match. There hasn’t been a single feature more criticised in Magic: The Gathering than the randomness of drawing mana. And yet, luck it’s part of what makes MTG stand out compared to other CCGs: For experienced players, it introduces uncertainty and the need to take risks and gamble, like they’d do in poker. And for rookies, it allows beating someone that has better skills and has a better deck, if Lady Luck is on their side. Won’t happen often, but it will feel awesome when it does. Like a friend likes to say: The best feeling in MTG is to draw a mana when you really need it. And the worst? To draw it when you didn’t. This goes to say that in autochess, perhaps the power of luck needs to be reviewed, but it would be a bad decision to completely remove luck from the equation.
DESIGN CHALLENGES
In this awesome DoF article, Giovanni Ducati already pointed out the two main problems that the games in this genre need to solve to achieve real success: Bad long term retention and low monetization. To these issues we would add a third one, which is bad marketability: Contrary to their big brothers League of Legends and DOTA2, these games haven’t been able to achieve high organic downloads (at least not to be able to generate significant revenue through soft monetization mechanics). What’s even worse is that all these games, their themes and target audience are quite close to RPG and Strategy, which are genres with some of the highest CPIs on the market. So they need top-of-the-class retention and monetization to get a high enough LTV to scale up. But why do these games fail at keeping players entertained for a long time? And why don’t they monetize enough? Here’s what we think:
Flat Complexity & Progression
You have some games out there which have a strong entry barrier due to being quite complicated to grasp. But for those that can deal with the numbers and stats, the depth will keep them entertained for months and years. This is the case in most RPGs and 4X strategy games. And then you have hypercasual games, which are simple and plug and play. So they generate a great early engagement, but are too shallow to keep users hooked for a long time. As a genre, Autochess games are in the middle ground: they have a high entry barrier, but also lack the complexity to keep players engaged for a long time… As a general rule, games with long retention tend to follow Bushnell’s Law of being easy to learn and difficult to master. They achieve that by having what we call an unfoldingexperience: They appear simpler at the beginning (not necessarily easy), but require thousands of hours of practice to master. An example of this are games that level lock most of the game complexity, so the player understands and masters only a set starter mechanics. And then, progressively unlock new modes and demand more specialized builds and gameplay, repeating the cycle several times to keep the game always interesting while attempting to avoid being overwhelming. https://preview.redd.it/e9f8s8tkjpg61.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=825c85b7c479b3bf05fc43ac668cbd1eddf17c97
In World of Warcraft, character depth is huge. But this complexity is unfolded progressively, forcing the player to spend time mastering each skill and activity as they level up, before moving further.
Rocket League hides its complexity by matchmaking early players with others of a similar skill. This makes beginner playersviableeven if they grasp only the basic mechanics. But, as they climb further, they’ll face rivals that take those basic skills for granted and the player will need to master more challenging techniques to keep up.
League of Legends and Overwatch are actually a combination of both: The game first introduces the player to a small selection of heroes which progressively gets expanded, while at the same time having an insane mastery depth that requires a high APM and reflexes, team coordination and thousands of hours of practice. Contrary to any of those examples, Autochess games throw everything at you from the beginning: Character Skills, Synergies, Unit Upgrade, Gold Management, Items… It’s a lot to swallow. And there’s not even enough time to read what each thing does before the timer runs out. This creates a complex, overwhelming first impression that drives many players out. But that’s quantity, not depth. Once you’ve gone through that traumatic starting phase, you’ve grasped all the mechanics and you know which team builds are dominating on the meta, it’s just a matter of making it happen by taking the right decisions and adapting to a few key draws. Eventually, unless luck is really against you, your skills won’t be challenged and you won’t have new mechanics to master. At that point, winning will be based more on the knowledge of the content database and luck rather than your planning and strategic ability. And that’s boring. So ultimately, these games are hard to grasp for a newbie, but also lack the ability to keep players interested for a very long time since they eventually run out of new features and mechanics to discover and master.
The DAU that we would expect on a long term retention game: A decreasing trend of players until reaching a stagnation stage. At that point, a big update (or new season) is required to attract and reengage users back with new content. This is the model we would see on Fortnite or Hearthstone, but it’s not what we see in most autochesses.
On this topic, perhaps the one that has put the most effort is Riot’s TFT. Each season update, the game releases a new series of heroes, synergies, items and rebalances, as well as a big bunch of cosmetics. This generates a short lived boost on revenue (due primarily to players buying the pass) and downloads, but ultimately nothing that really moves the needle in a relevant way. ‘Why seasonal updates don’t work?‘, you may be asking. Part of the reason is that TFT, as well as every major contender do not include elements of content progression or collection. Instead, they all stick to the roguelike approach of the original mod: Players have access to the same set of units, and build their inventory exclusively during the match. While at first this seems a good idea, since it keeps the game fair in a similar way to MOBAs, it’s oblivious to the fact that new units do not offer the same amount of gameplay depth as in League of Legends. InLoL, a new unit means weeks or even months of practice until mastering timing, range and usage of the skills, how they interact with every other champion, etc… In comparison, in TFT the new content can be fully explored in just a bunch of matches, both because the new content doesn’t offer that much depth to start with and because it’s available from the moment the player gets the update. By lacking content progression and collection, autochesses miss the opportunity to create long term objectives after an update, more innovative mechanics and less repetitiveness. As a consequence, they have it really hard to hype players on updates.
Big ‘Snowball Effect’
In game design, thesnowball effectrefers to the situation where obtaining an advantage or dominance generates further conditions that almost invariably means winning the match. As you can guess, on competitive games this effect can generate a bad experience, especially when the divergence starts early on: The player that obtained the early advantage will keep on increasing the advantage and curbstomp the rest. For example, this can happen on a Civilization game if a player gets ahead of the rest acquiring key resource territories, and uses them to achieve a greater progress in tech and income at a faster pace than the rest. Or in League of Legends if a team scores a bunch of early kills and levels up, becoming more able at scoring even more kills… https://preview.redd.it/s07v5umtjpg61.png?width=620&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae14e6101c2c35da175150251bf592d0598fb76c
In this match of Age of Empires 2, the red player (Aztecs) managed to decimate the blue player (Turks) military units early on. Since without an army it was impossible for the blue player to secure enough resources to perform a comeback, for the next 2 hours the blue player was in a pointless, hopeless match. Kudos for not abandoning, though!
Autochess games have a huge snowball effect, due to the following reasons:
Resources lead to victories, victories lead to resources As you know, in autochess each player builds a team based on successive battles. Better battle performance will grant more gold, which is the resource used to buy units, perform shop rolls, etc… Similar to the cases we’ve already explained, this means that players that achieve early dominance will be able to to obtain more gold, use it to get better units and get more victories and gold, therefore increasing their team power faster than the rest. ‘But players can be lucky or unlucky, generating a factor that compensates for the advantage of having more resources early on‘, you may be considering. Unfortunately, this is a flawed logic, because of 2 main reasons: (1) Having more resources means more adaptability: The dominant players will be able to leverage on them to re-adapt their team, therefore outperforming the rest on a randomness-driven scenario. (2) Resources allow to buy more rolls, which diminishes the deviation generated by each individual roll.
TeamFight Tactics attempts to decrease the snowball effect by introducing Carousels: rounds where all players pick a character from a list, and where the players that are losing (i.e. have less health) get to choose first. While this decreases the issue, it doesn’t really solve it… It just makes that smart players aim to lose on purpose at the beginning so they can get the better pick and generate the snowball slightly later on.
Luck factor. The previous point goes into maintaining and increasing dominance once it has been achieved early on, but another source of frustration is that luck is a huge factor in achieving early dominance. This means that your strategic skills and smarts can be completely invalidated by a couple of bad rolls at the beginning of the match. And there’s nothing that competitive players hate more than having their match stolen by factors outside the pure clash of abilities.
As an antithesis, Poker also has resource management, and luck factor determines the victory (on a specific round). But unlike Autochess, resources can’t override luck, and early victories don’t affect the later chance of winning.
Excessive Match Length
Compared to PC, on mobile is much harder to keep the player focused for a long period of time on a single session. And having a very long minimum session kind of goes against the premise of being able to play anywhere which is a primary strength of mobile as a gaming platform. This is a problem for autochess games since a single match can last for 30-45 minutes of synchronous, nonstop gameplay. https://preview.redd.it/eh020bi1kpg61.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e98aefdec1c79141d7fe13d02acfadb13e789b7
The knockout mode in Dota Underlords aims to make the game more accessible by skipping the slow beginning of the match (you start with a pre-setup army), and by simplifying the health and fusion systems. This shortens the matches to ~15 minutes, which is still too long for mobile, but better than 30. The problem is that it also increases the snowball effect, since the match has less turns to allow comebacks, and makes any mistake (or a bad roll) way more punishing.
‘Isn’t the solution just make the match shorter?’, you’re probably wondering. Unfortunately, there are several reasons that make this more challenging to the core design than what it seems:
Because in autochess the player builds its team from scratch, at the beginning of each match there are several turns to setup team foundations. Removing these early decisions severely decreases the teambuilding possibilities, decreasing overall depth.
Also, eachsetup phasebetween clashes requires a minimum time to think and perform the actions. In the last turns of a match, the game can become quite demanding on thinking and input speed.
Matches require a minimum amount of turns to compensate the weight of a single lucky/unlucky roll over the chances to win. Because the possible units for teambuilding appear on random rolls, the less turns there are the more luck factor the game will suffer, and as a consequence the less important the player’s strategic skills will be.
And if there are few turns, there are also less chances for comebacks. Because it means that players will have less setup phases to adapt and catch a player that has obtained an early advantage.
Finally, since the match involves 8 players, it requires a minimum of turns so that they all can fight between each other… Nevertheless, I don’t consider this a critical issue because Dota has been able to change this specific point on the knockout mode without sacrificing too much in terms of depth.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The history of the autochessgenre serves as an example of the risks of design endogamy: The devsphere rushed to clone Auto Chess, and before a year all the major contenders were in the board. But that speed came at a cost: None of these projects has brought the concept much further than its original conception, and in doing so they haven’t solved any of the core issues. https://preview.redd.it/jptzdrj8kpg61.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f3fb34eb46b610e6ee355ba47782c804cb74186
The folks at Riot games developed the TeamFight Tactics in less than 5 months. This allowed them to release while the hype was still at its peak… but it also meant it added just a couple of improvements, and it’s otherwise very similar to the original Auto Chess mod.
After seeing all these projects fail to meet the big expectations that were placed on them, the question is if perhaps the best approach was to avoid rushing, and instead tackle the genre with a title that is not a clone, but rather a more groomed, accessible and innovative successor of the original idea. In our next article on this series will make an attempt to see how such a game could be, rethinking the spirit and fresh design ideas of autochess to solve the issues mentioned above. (May take a while though, I want to focus on smaller articles for a couple of months…) Meanwhile, if you want to read more about this genre, we suggest you these awesome articles from the folks at DoF: Why Auto-Chess can’t monetize – and how to fix that and How Riot can turn TFT into a billion dollar game
Special Thanks to…
These articles wouldn’t have been possible with the collaboration of ~300 members of the reddit communities of the different auto chess games who provided us with feedback and data. You folks have been incredible solving all our doubts. One thing that this genre has is some of the most awesome players around. So big kudos for Brxm1, Erfinder Steve, Xinth, Zofia the Fierce, STRK1911, LontongSinga22, bezacho, hete, NeroVingian, marling2305, NOVA9INE , asidcabeJ, Eidallor, Rhai, Lozarian, bwdm, Toxic, Ruala, Papa Shango, MrMkay, Dread0, L7, kilmerluiz, Amikals, Sworith, Tankull, B., hete, Bour, Denzel, DeCeddy, Diaa, hamoudaxp, Benjamin “ManiaK” Depinois, Katunopolis, DanTheMan, MikelKDAplayer, 0nid, Tobocto, Tiny Rick, phuwin, Alcibiades, triceps, d20diceman, shadebedlam, stinky binky, Tutu, Myuura, suds, Kapo, Hearthstoned, Engagex, Pietrovosky, Daydreamer, Doctor Heckle, Ignis, ShawnE, NastierNate, LeCJ, Nene Thomas, Chris, trinitus_minibus, Nah, Kaubenjunge1337, Mudhutter, Asurakap, Nicky V, shinsplintshurts, bobknows27, Willem (Larry David Official on Steam), Jonathan, Dinomit24, Monstertaco, GangGreen69, Veshral Amadeus Salieri (…lol!), Kuscomem, Cmacu, Pioplu, Dilemily, qulhuae, Ilmo, MarvMind, facu1ty, crayzieap, Saint Expedite, Lobbyse, Lukino , tomes, Blitzy24, Mcmooserton, magicmerl, i4got2putsumpantzon, radicalminusone, Pipoxo, Kharambit, Bricklebrah, Rbagderp, Merforga, Superzuhong, Mo2gon, MoS.Tetu, MeBigBwainy, Zokus, CoyoteSandstorm, Stehnis, Noctis, Fkdn, Ray, Fairs1912, Fairs1912, Krakowski, HolyKrapp, Damadud, Pentium, Mach, Mudak, CaptSteffo, jwsw1990, Omaivapanda, Inquisitor Binks, Jack, yggdranix, GoodLuckM8, Centy, Prabuddha (aka Walla), dtan, Philosokitteh, Doms, ZEDD, Calloween, Synsane, Kaluma, GordonTremeshko , Djouni, DOGE, haveitall, ANIM4SSO, Task Manager, Submersed, BAKE, Viniv, La Tortuga Zorroberto, BixLe, Rafabeen, Blzane, bdlck666, FatCockNinja86, R.U.Sty, Yopsif, blesk, Quaest0r, FanOfTaylor, StaunchDruid, Rushkoski and everyone else that took some minutes to help us out on the article.
[$SE] Multi-year Emerging Market Growth - This is the Way
Alright, listen up my fellow autists. I was drafting this DD up to put in my private archives, but this place isn't autistic enough anymore. Apes are too alpha with their diamond hands and I'm here to bring you some plays to put tendies on the table like good ol days. I'm here to talk about what's for some reason an under followed stock. $SE BUT WHAT IS $SE?!?!?!? Sea Limited is a leading E-commerce, digital payments, and mobile gaming company based in Southeast Asia NOT COMMIE TOWN CHINA (disclaimer I'm long $BABA). They operate through those three segments and benefit from synergies between them. Let's start with E-commerce It's the middle of a fucking GLOBAL PANDEMIC. I bet your house is filled with cardboard boxes up to the ceilings. At least mine is. I'm buying a lot of shit online, because I'm working from home, trading in my PJs and making FAT STACKS off $SE. While I don't live in Malaysia, I use Amazon. It's the future. Look at the entire brick and mortar retail industry over the last 5-10 years cough GME cough. Things aren't so hot. You can get things cheaper and exactly what you want. I feel this part of the thesis is pretty self explanatory. Do you believe people will continue to buy things online over the next 10 years?
Yes -> buy $SE
No -> Go buy GME lol
But how are they doing? FUCKING GREAT. I have access to some proprietary app data I'm too lazy to smuggle off my work PC, but let me say. Things are UP. Downloads, DAU, session length, all the metrics. BOOMIN. Don't believe me? Here's how they've been doing vs. local competitors ($BABA owned Lazada) and a private company rumored to be involved with a one of those special purpose tickers (Tokopedia). $SE mainly competes in its e-commerce segment in the Southeast Asia market. It's key countries are Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil. As shown here using google trends, we see that Shopee is now claiming the top spot in relative search interest in many of these markets. Gaining Share/Interest over competitors in recent years ShopeeBlue-LazadaRed-TokopediaYellow Source:https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=shopee,lazada,tokopedia Current Growth Rates Digital Payments. $SE also has a digital wallet app. This is Southeast Asia. They don't have JP Morgan pulling from everyone's pockets. Everyone's got a phone and uses this in tandem to purchase things online. Did I mention that $SE has both B2C and C2C shopping apps? Want to transact with local business? Process payments and handle your small business checking through $SE. Makes it easy to track and receive payments from customers. Fucking great. Basically lets the company pull a sliver from every transaction going on in their markets. Not a compelling YOLO worthy investment on it's own but bolsters the package, just like how stuffing a sock bolsters my cock. Mobile Gaming. What's that? Boom Beach is for dads? I know. Doesn't matter, the rest of the world loves this shit. Their mobile gaming division is called Garena and their biggest game is a battle royale called Free Fire:
Garena is a leading esports organizer. It hosts esports events around the world that range from grassroots local tournaments to some of the most viewed professional esports competitions globally. Garena’s largest global esports tournament of 2019, the Free Fire World Series, achieved over 130 million cumulative online views.
Somehow, this shit fills stadiums. And growth don't stop. Why it's interesting? Recent IPO (relatively). This thing is less than 2 years public and absolutely on a tear. Market cap of $140 billion is especially compelling. Consider that the e-commerce growth is the fastest in the world in their markets.. It's a company you value on the top-line. So in a region with 8-10% GDP growth, and 10%+ ecommerce growth it's easy to make a case for 20% top-line growth on right there. Now lets consider an increasing shift in spend from brick and mortar to digital of 10% (you make 1 out of 10 purchases online more than you did last year) and gaining market share. 50% growth isn't hard to achieve on this piece of the business alone. And that's ANNUAL. How to play it? LEAPS. Shares are for apes and frees up cash for FDs on pull backs (if it drops more than 10% hammer the ask on all the 20% OTM 60 DTE you can get). TL;DR? EDUCATE YOURSELF AND READ IT. THERE WILL BE MORE TO COME. $SE $350 2023 Cs - This is the way
#NoSqueezeNeeded: a simple plan to save our people at $483.
No disclaimer as there is no financial advice here. Position: 800 @ xx.xx TL;DR: The squeeze is not required. We can save everybody and shoot for the stars. My fellow 🐵, retards, a-genius and girlfriend's husband, it is now your time to shine and show the world what eating crayons and sniffing glue has done to your smooth brains. GME is currently at $52.40, with a market cap of $3.65B. As I math badly I will rule of three and say we need a $34B valuation to reach $483. I know... $34B seems like a lot of money, but humour me for a second and have look at this. You have landed on page 6. For the next few minutes, I will ask you to scroll up the top of the list and gibber if you don't find a name that, in your mind, is worth far less than GME. Do it, I will wait... You did your DD but it's still shocking, isn't it? The squeeze is not required. Now that it has sunken in: • This sub has nearly 80000 members. • Let's say 1% of them read this post, it's 800. • 10% (trying to be super conservative) of the 800 have ideas about how to improve GameStop business in general and/or make the public realize the true value of the company. That's a dedicated and motivated team of 80 producing at least 1 idea, so 80 ideas. • 2% of the 80s are actually really good and we end up with a bit more than 1 genius idea. ...and that's all we need. A single idea to move GME's valuation to a fair region above $34B and come back for our wounded. Now here is what I'm going to do. I'm going to update this post and the list below with the best 🥜 produced by your challenged cerebra. With a little bit of luck, we get enough traction and get pinned. So without further ado,
How to ensure the long-term survival of GME – our plan to become an interplanetary species and settle permanently among the stars:
u/schokoschlotze: Allowing digital reselling of gamekeys, unlike steam.
u/Diamond_Hands_Only: They need a online gaming platform like steam so I can buy and stream all my purchased games through them from one spot. GameStop.(u/mouldysandals: GameSpot)
u/OTHERMIKEtm: VR arcade with memberships. Not everyone can afford the high end computer and peripherals to have the ultimate VR experience.
u/Purrnie_Sandturds: Digital crypto currency that is accepted at GameStop stores and compatible with popular mobile/app gaming platforms. Should be distributed as a shareholder dividend.
u/pawn4king: Non shitty esports SaaS. Allowing me to create a local esports tourney and manage it all with the branding of GameStop. Esports gambling and leaderboards included. From local tourneys to large scale corporate events.
u/wiscowhaaat: Honestly, I’d like to see them as a competitor to twitch, but also become a steam competitor, as another redditor mentioned they would like to be able to sell their digital key. The one thing I hate about GameStop is that they deal too much in figurines and Knick knacks. What they need is the ability to sell ad space, because that’s obviously where the money is based on what we’ve seen out of Facebook and Twitter, etc.
u/utkant: GameStop should make play cafe, where kids can hang out and play together. Sell candy, soda, pizza, etc. Run local tournaments, regional tournaments, national, world tournaments. Sell best seller games on these places so kids can buy them to have at home if they want to.
u/Alarming-Event-8788: How about being able to live bet ($) games against each other online?
u/AvenDonn: Expand into all forms of gaming. Sports, tabletop, roleplaying, arcade (VR), as well as a publisher for video games. Good synergy with a steam competitor, being able to return digital "used" games for store credit or even real money is defintely a strong move.
u/Walruzuma: Ummm... Pretty sure Ryan Cohen has this covered. I think he's much of the reason for the original DD on the play and why no one is worried about hodling.But what do I know. I'm just a simple cave man who does not offer financial advice. But I do offer advice about shills. Don't tell this guy anything (op: sure mate)
We like the stonk.
Ladies and gentletards, synchronize Flik Flak. 💎👐🚀
$SNE, MASSIVE DOUBLE DICK INSIDE. Poised to moon long-term (Computer vision boom, EV boom, autonomous driving tech, gaming boom, music streaming boom, cross-media IP, vertically integrated anime streaming monopoly, online medical services boom, shift to mirrorless cameras)
Listen up retards. Do you happen to feel regret because you always think “ohhh if I yoloed my savings on TSLA/AMD/NVDA 🚀 leaps years ago I could be rich by now!!!” Well if you didn't know already, it doesn’t really matter what happened in the past. Hindsight will always be 20/20. You shouldn’t be harsh on yourself on your past self that your past self wasn’t retarded enough to yolo their savings into AMD/TSLA/.... Your past self doesn’t have the same knowledge that your current self has. It’s fine. If you judged those stocks with the best DD you could do at the time and didn’t think they were worth it, then you did a good job. If you always think about what you could/should have done in the past, then you don't have the right attitude to play the stock market casino imho. The single most important thing is to be able to look ahead. There are always plenty of opportunities around. There are thousands of rockets that are still on earth right now. Some may depart this year, others will stay a little longer on earth. The true strength lies in being able to identify those rockets with the knowledge you have right now. And if you still miss most rockets that will take-off this year that's fine, maybe you'll learn, get better and you'll do better next year. Now, what if I told you there’s a big rocket that’s parked right right here on earth and it has decent chance for take-off this year? Maybe it won't quite reach the moon this year yet, but hey leaving the exosphere should already be a cool milestone. It has rock-solid fundamentals and will see lots of growth in the following years/decade. It’s a company that has the fundamental technology to power all the computer vision tech, which is bound to boom this decade. The company we’re talking about is of course Sony, and it is extremely undervalued right now. Its P/E is only 14. They have a P/S of 1.65, a PEG of 0.92 (< 2 is already somewhat exceptional for a company/conglomerate of Sony’s size, under 1 is a steal) Much lower than all of its same-sector peers. This indicates significant undervaluation. Next up Sony has a P/CF 13.2, ROE of 20% (S&P 500 average is 14% which would already be considered pretty good. 20% ROE is excellent), PEGY of 0.89, P/B of 2.65 and finally Sony has $41.6B in cash on hand. This makes Sony one of the cheapest tech/entertainment/EV/semiconductor growth stocks you will find on the market. (ROE of 20% + PEGY of 0.89 + PEG of 0.92 means this company is a growth stock based on the numbers alone, but we’ll dig into the actual company and overall outlook in a moment) I challenge all retards to find a company with similar benchmarks in one of the mentioned sectors, seriously. Quite frankly doing this DD honestly blew my mind. I kept looking everywhere for reasons why the company could be so undervalued and why they may struggle in the future. Very important to look at all the challenges the company faces to make sure I’m not just doing confirmation bias DD. But all I could find was the opposite. After several weeks and months of working on this DD, I can only conclude that it is overall a very solid company for a bargain price. The new CEO is taking the company in a great direction imho and I'm begin to think he could be Sony's Satya Nadella. So if you want some easy tendies, maybe consider $SNE while it is still cheap, I’d say. For the autists out there who care about analyst ratings, SONY ($SNE) currently has 18 BUY ratings, 2 OVERWEIGHT, 4 HOLD and 0 SELL. (= analyst consensus is a STRONG BUY). Very little analysts cover this stock compared to other entertainment/tech companies, so this adds to my assertion that the stock is very much under the radar. Which means you have time to get in before it gets noticed by the larger investing world and before it starts to get a more fair valuation (P/E of around 30 would be more fair for this company I think, but still cheaper than many same sector peers). But, anyway the few analysts who do happen to cover this company are basically all saying it’s an instant-buy at its current price. Most boomer investors still think big Japanese tech companies are dinosaurs that have long been surpassed by China, South Korea and Apple etc ages ago. Young boomers may think Sony = PlayStation and that it's it. But the truth is that PlayStation, while very important (about 24% of Sony's total revenue last year), is a part of a larger story. Lots of investors in general associate Sony with the passé Japanese electronics companies from the 80’s and the 90’s. Just like a lot people may think BlackBerry is a struggling phone company. While Sony may not be the powerhouse in consumer electronics it was in the 80’s and the 90’s, in a lot of ways they are more relevant than ever before. Despite being a well-known brand and being known as the company behind PlayStation, for some reason its stock still seems to be under the radar among both retail and institutional investors. And boy, are they mind-blowingly undervalued. Even if a big part of its business would collapse tomorrow, they would still be slightly undervalued. And I am about to tell you why. (& btw compared to Japanese tech/entertainment stocks $SNE is still super cheap (Canon, Nikon, Toshiba, Sharp, Panasonic, Square Enix, Capcom, Nintendo, Fujitsu all have P/E ratios ranging from 18 to 77 and none of them have the combination of global clout, fundamentals & growth prospects that Sony has)) 2021 Sony as a corparation is not the fucking Sony from 2005-2015’s, just like BlackBerry in 2021 is not the fucking Blackberry from 2012. Just like Garmin in 2021 is not Garmin from 2011. Just like AMD in 2021 is not AMD from 2012. No, in 2021, Sony is the global leader in imaging technology and people do not fucking realize it. Sony has 50% marketshare in the CMOS image sensor market. There’s a very good chance the smartphone in your pocket has Sony image sensors (unless it’s a Samsung phone). Sony image sensors are powering a big part of today's vision/camera technology. And they will power even more of tomorrow's computer vision tech. In 2021, Sony is a behemoth in video games, music, anime, movies and TV show production. Sony is present in every segment of entertainment. Sony’s entertainment branches have been doing great business over the past 5 years, especially music and PlayStation. Additionally, Sony Pictures has completely turned around. In 2021, Sony is the world’s biggest music publisher (and second biggest music company overall). Music streaming has been a boon for Sony Music and will continue to be. In 2021, Sony is among the biggest mobile gaming companies in the world (yes, you read that right). And it’s mainly thanks to one game (Fate/Grand Order) that nets them over $1B revenue each year. One of the biggest mobile gaming companies + arguably biggest gaming brand in the world (PlayStation). In 2021, Sony is an EV company. They surprised the world when they revealed their “Vision-S” at CES 2020. At the reception was fantastic. It is seriously one of the best looking EV’s. They already sell sensors to Toyota. Sony will most like sell the Vision-S's tech to other car manufacturers (sensors for driving assistence / autonomous driving, LiDAR tech, infotainment system). 40 sensors in the Sony Vision-S Considering the overwhelmingly good reception of the Vision-S so far, I suspect the Vision-S could be another catalyst that will put Sony as a company on the radar of investors and consumers. We've seen insane investment hype for anything even remotely related to EV over the past year. We've seen a company that barely had a few EV design concepts (oh wait, they had a gravity-powered truck though) even get a $30B market cap at some point lmao. But somehow a profitable company ($SNE) that has an EV that you can actually drive, doesn't even have a fair valuation? In 2020’s Sony’s brand value is at their highest point since 12 years. In 2021, it is projected to be a its highest point since 2001 assuming same growth as average yearly growth from 2015 to 2020. Keep in mind brand valuation is a bit bullshitty as there’s no standardization to compare brands from different sectors, let alone non-consumer-facing brands with consumer-facing brands. But one thing we can note is that Sony both as B2C brand and as a B2B company is on a big upwards trend. https://interbrand.com/best-global-brands/sony/ https://careers.uw.edu/blog/2020/03/17/these-are-the-10-biggest-video-game-companies-in-north-america-shared-article-from-zippia/ In 2021, Sony is an entertainment behemoth. They have grown their entertainment branches by a huge amount over the past 5 to 10 years (they made some big acquisitions in the music space especially and they’re now also all-in in anime). I don’t think people realize how big Sony is as an entertainment company. I dug up the numbers and as of Q3 2020, PlayStation is the second biggest video game company in the world (Tencent is #1) in revenue (I suspect Sony might dethrone Tencent after Sony’s FY Q3 2020 is released). But Sony already comes very close to Tencent especially if you add Fate/Grand Order (which is under Sony Music and not under PlayStation) under PlayStation. There’s no single other company that has this unique combination of a dominant/important position in all entertainment segments. (video games + music + movies + TV series + anime + TV networks). I guess Tencent maybe? In 2021, Sony has amazing momentum in the camera space. If you’re familiar with the enthusiast photography space, you should know this. Basically, the market is slowly shifting from SLR to mirrorless cameras. This is because mirrorless cameras tend to smallelighter, have faster AF, better low light performance, better battery life and better video performance. Sony is the company that has been specializing in the development for mirrorless cameras for over a decade while Canon’s bread and butter has always been SLR cameras. Sony is in the lead when it comes to mirrorless cameras and that’s where the market is shifting towards. Because the advantages of mirrorless have become more and more apparent and Sony’s cameras have become technically superior, Sony has gained quite a bit of market share over Canon and Nikon in the last few years. In 2019, Sony overtook Nikon as the #2 camera manufacturer. Sony is in an upwards trend here. (they have the ambition to become the world’s #1 camera brand) Sony also has very good marketing for their cameras. (Sony has a lot of YouTubers / influencers / brand ambassadors for their cameras despite being a smaller brand than Canon) (just search on YouTube and/or Google “switching to Sony from Canon” just to give you an idea that they do have amazing brand momentum in the camera space. You won’t get as many hits for the opposite) A huge portion of Sony’s profit comes from image sensors in addition to music and video games. This is in addition to their highly profitable financial holdings division & their more moderately profitable electronics division. Sony’s electronics division, unlike other Japanese brands, has shown great resilience against the very strong competition from China & South Korea. They have been able to maintain their position in the audio space and as of 2020 are still the global market leader in high-end TV’s (a position they have been holding for decades) and it seems they will continue to be able to maintain that. But seriously this company is dirt-cheap compared to any of its peers in any segment and there’s various huge growth prospects for Sony:
CMOS image sensors & Sony’s overall imaging prowess will boom due to increased demand from automotive sector, security & surveillance industry, manufacturing industry, medical sector and finally from the aerospace & defence industry. On the longer term, image sensors will continue to boom due to increased demand for computer vision & AI + robotics. And for consumer electronics demand will remain very high obviously.
Sony is aiming for 60% market share in the CMOS image sensor market by 2026. Biggest threat here is Samsung here who have recently started to aggressively invest in image sensors and are challenging Sony. Sony has technological lead + higher production capacity (and Sony will soon open a new plant in Nagasaki), so Sony should be able to hold off Samsung.
The iPhone 12 Pro has 3 cameras + a lidar sensor. Apple now buys 3 image sensors (from Sony) + LiDAR sensor (from Sony) per iPhone 12 Pro they manufacture. Remember the iPhone X and iPhone XS? That one had “only” 2 rear cameras (with image sensos from Sony of course). Basically, Sony will be selling exponentially more image sensors as more smartphones get equipped with more and more cameras.
Now think about how many image sensors Sony can sell to Apple if the iPhone 13 will have 5 cameras + LiDAR sensor (I mean the number of cameras on smartphones certainly won’t decrease)
Gaming (PS5 hype, PSN game sales are booming, add-on content is booming, PS+ subscribers count is booming and finally PSNow & first-party games sales are trending upwards as well). Very consistent year-on-year profit & revenue growth here. They have a history of beating earnings expectations here. The number of PS+ subscribers went from 4M to 48M in just 6-7 years. Investors love to hype up recurring revenue and subscription services such as Disney+ and Netflix. Let’s apply the same logic to PS+? PS+ already has more subscribers than HBO Max in the USA.
PlayStation (video games in general) has not even scratched the fucking surface. Most people who play video games now are millennials and kids. Do you think those millennials will stop playing video games when they grow older? No, of course not. Boomers today also still watch movies and TV. Those millennials have kids and those kids are now also playing video games. The kids of those kids will also play video games etc. Basically the total addressable audience for video games will by HUGE by the end of the decade (and the decades after that) because video games will have penetrated all age ranges of the population. Gaming is the fastest growing segment of the whole entertainment business. By a large margin. PlayStation is obviously in a great position here as you can guess from the PS5 hype, but more importantly imho, the growth of PS+ subscribers (currently a bit under 50 million) and PSN users (>100 million MAU) over the past 5 years shows that PlayStation is primed to profit from the audience growth.
On top of that you have huge video game growth in the China where Sony & PlayStation is already much better established than Xbox (but still super small compared to mobile games and PC gaming in China). Within the console market, Xbox only competes with PlayStation in North America. In the rest of the world, PlayStation has an enormous lead over Xbox. Xbox is simply a lesser known and lesser desirable brand in the rest of the world
Anime streaming (basically they have a monopoly already + vertical integration, it might still be somewhat niche right now, but it will be big within 5 years. Acquiring Crunchyroll was a very good move)
Music streaming (no, they don’t have a music streaming service, but as music streaming grows, Sony Music also gets a piece of the growing pie through licensing/royalties, and they also still have a little 2.8% stake in Spotify)
Apple, Amazon, Netflix, AT&T and Disney are currently battling it out in the streaming wars. When there’s a war you have little chances of winning, you shouldn’t be the one waging the war. You should be the one selling the ammo. Basically Sony Pictures (tv shows + movies) is in that position. Sony Pictures can negotiate good prices for their content because Apple, Amazon, Netflix, AT&T are thirsty for content and they all want their own exclusive content. Sony Pictures does not need to prop up their own streaming service just like Sony Music doesn’t need their own music streaming service when they can just license out their content and turn a profit. There will always be demand for TV & movies content, so Sony Pictures is well positioned is as an independent content provider. And while Apple, Amazon, Netflix, AT&T and Disney are battling it out on the forefront, Sony is quietly building their anime empire in the background. Genius business move from Sony here, seriously. They now have anime production & distribution.
Netflix has 200M subscribers and they currently have a 250M market cap. Think about what Sony will have in 5 years? >30M Crunchyroll subscribers (assuming all anime will be consolidated into Crunhyroll) & >100M PS+ & PSNow subscribers? Anime and gaming is growing faster than movies and TV shows. (9% CAGR for anime, 12% CAGR for gaming vs. 5% CAGR for the whole movies & TV show entertainment segment which includes PVOD, SVOD, box office, TV etc etc). And gaming as a whole is MUCH bigger than SVOD streaming. Netflix gets 99% of their revenue & profit through subscriptions. For the whole Sony Group Corporation, their subscription services (games + anime) it’s currently only 4.5% of their total revenue. And somehow Sony currently has a meagre $128B market cap?
PlayStation alone is bigger than Netflix in terms of operating profit. PlayStation has a MUCH higher profit margin than Netflix. For Q3 2020 Netflix posted $790M operating profit and PlayStation posted $988M operating profit. Revenue was was $6.44B for Netflix vs. $4.77B for PlayStation. (and btw Sony’s mobile gaming revenue (~$1B / year) is under Sony Music, it is not even in those PlayStation numbers!!!)
Think about it. PlayStation alone posts bigger operating profit than Netflix (yes revenue is bit smaller, but it’s the operating profit that matters most). And gaming is growing faster than movies. And PlayStation is about 24% of Sony’s total revenue. And yet Netflix has a market cap that is equal to the double of Sony's market cap? Basically If you apply Netflix’ valuation to PlayStation then PlayStation alone should have a bigger market cap than Netflix' market cap.
Sony Vision-S & autonomous driving tech (selling sensors + infotainment system to other car manufacturers). Sony surprised everyone when they revealed their Sony Vision-S electric vehicle last year at CES 2020 (in-house design and made in cooperation with Magna Steyr). And it’s currently being tested on public roads. Over the past year we have seen absurdly big investment hype into anything even remotely related to EV’s (including a few questionable companies). We’ve even seen an EV company with a gravity-powered truck get a $30B market cap in June last year. Meanwhile Sony, out of nowhere, revealed what is arguably (subjectively) one of the best looking EV’s. It got very positive reception at CES 2020. An EV that you can actually drive. But somehow their stock is still dirt-cheap based on their current fundamentals alone? Yet some companies that had pretty much nothing but some EV design concepts got insane valuations purely due to hype?
LTE chips for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Altair Semiconductors)
Cross-media IP (The Last of Us show on HBO, Uncharted movie etc). Huge unrealized potential synergy here (it’s about to change). We have seen that it can turn out super well when you look at The Witcher, Sonic the Hedgehog and Detective Pikachu. When The Witcher released on Netflix, sales of The Witcher 3 significantly increased again. Imagine the same thing, but with Sony IP’s. Sony Pictures is currently working on 7 video game IP based TV shows and 3 movies. We know The Last of Us tv series is currently in production for HBO. And then the Uncharted is currently in post-production and scheduled to be released in July this year currently. If Uncharted turns out to be successful, it will mark a big, new milestone for Sony as an entertainment company imho.
Aniplex (Sony Music Entertainment Japan subsidiary for anime production, distribution & mobile games) had a fantastic year in 2020. (more on this later) There is a lot of room for mobile games growth with Aniplex. Thanks to Aniplex, Sony might beat their earnings forecast.
Drones. DJI just got put on Entity List in USA and Sony started developing drones for prosumer / professional a few years ago. Big opportunity for Sony here to take a bit from DJI’s dominance. It only makes sense for Sony to enter the drone market targeting the professional & prosumer video market, considering Sony’s established position in the professional audio/video/photography space
Currently Sony also has several ventures & investments in AI & robotics
Over the past decade, Sony has also carefully expanded into medical equipment tech & biotechnology. Worth noting that Sony also has an important 33% stake in M3 inc (a medical services through-the-internet company with a market cap of $65.5B) (= just their stake in M3 Inc is worth $22B alone, remember Sony, with their large, diversified revenue streams & assets only has a market cap of $128B?)
Sony Pictures has a great upcoming movie slate (MCU Spider-Man, Uncharted, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Venom 2, Morbius, Spider-Verse sequel, Hotel Transylvania 4, Peter Rabbit 2, Vivo, The Nightingale). They will profit from the theatre reopening and covid recovery. They may even become more favourable among movie theatre chains because they won’t release their movies on the same day on streaming services like Warner (and yeah movie theatres are here to stay, at least for a while imho)
All the above comes on top of established, mature markets (Financial Holdings & Electronic Products)
Oh yeah, btw though TV’s are a cyclical and mature market and are not that important for Sony Group Corporation’s bottomline*, Sony TV’s will continue to do well for the following successive years: o 2020: continued pandemic boost
2020-2021: PS5 / Xbox Series X/S
2021 Summer Olympics (tv sales ALWAYS spike during the olympics) (& the effect is more pronounced for high-end TV’s, = good for Sony because Sony’s market share is concentrated in the high-end range (they are market leader in the high-end range)
2022 FIFA world cup (exact same thing as for the olympics)
You could say it’s already priced in, but the stock is already ridiculously undervalued so idk…
You would think this company somehow has a bad outlook, but that could not be further from the true, let me explain and go over some of the different divisions and explain why they will moon: Sony Entertainment While Netflix, Disney, AT&T, Amazon, and Apple are waging the great streaming war, Sony has been quietly building its anime streaming empire over the past years.
Sony recently acquired Crunchyroll for $1.175B (it is a great deal for Sony imho and will immediately be more valuable under Sony. Considering the growing appetite for anime I honestly do not even understand why AT&T sold it, they could have integrated it with their other streaming service (HBO Max) but ok)
With Crunchyroll Sony now has the following anime empire:
Aniplex (anime production & distribution, subsidiary of Sony Music Entertainment Japan) F
Funimation
Manga Entertainment UK (production, licensing, and distribution, UK)
Wakanam (licensing and distribution in Europe)
AnimeLab (licensing and distribution in Australia & New Zealand)
Crunchyroll (3 million paying subcribers, 90 million registered users and 50 million social media followers)
* Why anime matters: Anime growth “The global size is expected to reach USD 36.26 billion by 2025, registering a CAGR of 8.8% over the forecast period, according to a study conducted by Grand View Research, Inc. Growing popularity and sales of Japanese anime content across the globe apart from Japan is driving the growth” (tl;dr anime 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀, Sony is all in on anime and they have pretty much no competition) Anime is the fastest growing subsegment of movies/video entertainment worldwide.
Sony also has a partnership with Bilibili for anime distribution in China:
Bilibili already partnered with Sony Music Entertainment Japan to bring Aniplex’s hugely successful Aniplex’s Fate/Grand Order mobile game in China.
Sony acquired a 5% stake in Bilibili for $400M in March 2020 (that 5% stake is now already worth $2.33B at Bilibili’s current share price ($BILI) and imho $BILI still has lots of upside potential considering it is the de facto video creation/sharing/viewing à la YouTube/Twitch for GenZ in China)
Sony Music (mobile games) generated $400M revenue from its mobile games in Q2 FY2020, published through Aniplex (Sony Music Entertainment Japan, “SMEJ”) subsidiary
They are the publisher of Fate/Grand Order, one of the most profitable mobile video games of the past 5 years (has generated $4B in revenue (!!) by the end of 2019 and is still as popular as ever). Fate/Grand order is the 7th most profitable mobile game in revenue worldwide as of 2020 (!)
Aniplex launched Disney: Twisted Wonderland in March this year. In Q3, it was the #10 most downloaded mobile game in Japan. (Aniplex now has two top ten games in Japan)
Fate/Grand Order was the #2 most tweeted game in 2020 and #3 was Disney: Twisted Wonderland. You can see that Aniplex has two hugely successful mobile games. (we are talking close to $1B of revenue a year here). It is the #2 game in Japan by total revenue from Q1 2016 to Q3 2020 and the #9 game in worldwide revenue from Q1 2020 to Q3 2020.
SMEJ earns about > $1B from mobile games in revenue from mobile games and there is still a lot of future growth potential here considering Japan’s mobile game market grew a whopping 32% yoy from Q3 2019 to Q3 2020.
Aniplex recently co-distrubuted the movie Demon Slayer: Mugen Train in Japan in October 2020. It became the highest grossing film of all time in Japan with a total gross box office revenue of $380M. In the middle of a pandemic. It still needs to release in South Korea, China and USA where it will most likely do great as well.
Sony Interactive Entertainment (SIE) (Game & Netwerk Services business unit):
We all know 2020 was a huge year for video games with the stay-at-home pandemic boost. The whole video game sector brought in $180B of revenue in 2020, a whopping 20% increase yoy.
But 2020 will not be just a one-off temporary exceptional year for video games. The video game market has a CAGR of 13% which means it will be worth $291B in 2027. Video games is by far the segment with the highest growth rate in the whole entertainment industry.
PlayStation obviously has a huge piece of this pie and over the past years has seen consistent yoy revenue and profit growth. Think about it, for every FIFA/Call of Duty/Assassin’s Creed sold on PS4/PS5, Sony gets a 30% cut. There have been sold a billion PS4 games so far.
5 years ago 20 to 30% of PS4 games were purchased digitally. Flashforward to 2020 and it’s 60-75% and the digital ratio looks set to still increase a bit. This means higher profit margin for game publishers and for Sony at the expense of retailers
SIE has seen huge success in its first-party games over the past 5 years. Spider-Man, God of War, Horizon: Zero Dawn, The Last of Us Part 2, Uncharted 4, Ghost of Tsushima, Days Gone, Ratchet & Clank have all been huge successes. This is really big and represents a big change compared to the previous generations where Sony never really hit it big as a games publisher even though most of their games were considered quality games.
SIE is now not only a powerful platform holdeprovider, but also a very successful games publisher with popular IP’s (Uncharted, God of War, The Last of Us, Horizon, Ghost of Tsushima, Ratchet & Clank). This is an enormous asset, because firstly it increases the chances of success for cross-media opportunities (Sony Pictures can make TV shows and movies out of it to expand the popularity of those IP’s even more). And secondly, it is an obvious selling point for PS5. The more popular and bigger their exclusive content, the more they can draw people to their platform/service. This should increases PS5 total marketshare over its competitor.
The hype for God of War: Ragnarok will be absolutely through the roof. Hype for Horizon: Forbidden West is also very good already (10 million yt views, 273K likes which is very good). Gran Turismo 7 and Ratchet & Clank will also do very well in 2021. (I suspect that GoW oand Horizon might be delayed to 2022)
PS5 reception has been extremely good. Demand is through the roof as well all know. The only problem is that they cannot quite capitalize on the demand due to lack of supply, but overall, it is a very good thing that demand is very high, and that reception has been very positive. The challenge will primarily supply and production-related for the following 6 months and to be able to maintain brand momentum. Hopefully, they won’t push disappointed/inpatient customers to competitors.
Considering there’s backwards compatibility from PS4 to PS5, users will want all their PSN content to transition with them as well, so I expect them to lose very little marketshare to Xbox. Also, I do not know if Americans realize it, but Xbox is not nearly as big as PlayStation in the rest of the world as it is in the USA. PlayStation just has global brand power that Xbox just doesn’t have, so Xbox isn’t much of threat at all I’d say. Where I live, in Belgium, In Europe everyone is talking about the PS5, nobody really seems to care about Xbox Series S/X that much. Comparing PlayStation to Xbox in terms of mindshare is like comparing Apple to Motorola (not meant to be a diss to Motorola, I have a Motorola phone myself, just saying that Xbox has significantly less mindshare / brand power in Europe).
SIE is likely working on PSVR 2, this could be big.
Sony has a small stake in Epic Games (1.4%) and they have a good business relationship with them, so this might also make them open to release first-party games on Epic Games Store after exclusivity period on PS5.
Remember the Travis Scott concert in Fortnite? I believe that was one of the reasons why Sony invested in Epic Games. It serves as an example how music can sometimes converge with video games, and this can play to Sony’s strengths.
PlayStation also has way superior presence in Asia compared to Xbox. Have been expanding into China as well. Another great opportunity for revenue growth.
PS+ subscribers grew from 5.7 million by the end of 2013 to 46 million by October 30th, 2020. This is an average growth rate of 28% over the past 5 years. Considering most of the growth was early on, it will slow down, but I predict that they will have about 70 million PS+ subscribers by the end of 2023. This is huge and represents a stable, recurring source of income. Investors who keep hyping Netflix/Disney+ will love this, but it seems they have yet to discover $SNE.
There is a reason why Amazon, Google, Nvidia have been aggressively investing in video games & games streaming. They know the business is huge and is about to get even bigger. But considering the established, loyal PlayStation userbase, the established global brand of PlayStation and the exclusive games, PlayStation should be able to easily standoff competition from Amazon, Google and Nvidia (GeForce Now) in the next few years. So far, Amazon’s venture into game development, publishing & streaming has completely failed. Stadia and GeForceNow seem to have a bit more success, but still relatively niche. Therefore, I think PlayStation is well-positioned to remain one of the leaders in the industry for the following decade.
I'll get to the other divisions later, I figured this is a good first step. But so far the tl;dr Image sensors: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 IoT/Industry 4.0 chipsets: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 PS5/PSN/PS+: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Online medical services (M3 inc.): 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Anime: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Fate/Grand Order: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Demon Slayer: Mugen Train 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Sony Music / music streaming (the performance of Sony Music’s in Sony’s business is seriously understated. The numbers speak for themselves): 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Sony Electronics 🚀 Sony Financial Holdings (very stable & profitable business, even managed to grow slightly during pandemic when most insurance companies performed more poorly): 🚀🚀🚀 Still have to cover Sony Pictures, but their upcoming movie slate looks pretty good honestly (Spider-Man sequel, Venom: Let There Be Darkness, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Uncharted, Morbius, Hotel Transylvania 4 so that's worth one rocket as well imho 🚀 tl;dr of tl;dr: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. I am an idiot that's trying to understand why $SNE stock is so cheap. Positions: SNE 105C 21st January 22
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